| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~$2.25 vs. cons ~$2.40 |
LOW |
| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDAX (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1,400M vs. cons ~$1,420M |
LOW |
| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~$550M vs. cons ~$680M |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
FY26 production guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~7.5 Bcfe/d vs. cons ~7.5 Bcfe/d (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
FY26 capex guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.85B vs. cons ~$2.85B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
Marketing/commercial FCF target |
BETTER |
guide ~$750M/yr vs. cons ~$500M/yr (annual run-rate post Twin Eagle) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
Twin Eagle EBITDA accretion |
BETTER |
guide ~>$200M vs. cons ~$0 (annual, not yet modeled) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
Near-term buyback capacity (2H26) |
LOWER |
guide ~$150-200M/qtr vs. cons ~$300M/qtr (2H2026, cash diverted to $1.25B deal) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| EXE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Seasonally soft Q2 (lower spring realizations, front-loaded capex) is an expected step-down, so the print itself is a sideshow; the debate is Twin Eagle. Gas E&P investors typically penalize moves down the value chain into a trading/marketing book, and the $1.25B cash-and-revolver funding crowds out buybacks at a stock already -18% YTD near range lows. Out-period math works against the multiple: mid-$3s 2027 strip pressures FCF, lower near-term repurchase capacity, and marketing EBITDA carries a lower multiple than E&P cash flow, so as analysts trim 2H26/2027 buyback and FCF assumptions the initial cautious reaction follows through lower rather than reversing. |
LOW |