| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $1.16 |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDAX |
MISS |
pred ~$1.48B vs. cons $1.58B |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Report |
Net Production (Bcfe/d) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~7.46 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.45 Bcfe/d |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Guide |
FY2026 Production Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~7.5 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.48 Bcfe/d (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Guide |
FY2026 Capex Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.85B vs. cons $2.85B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
Pro Forma Net Debt/EBITDA (post Twin Eagle) |
LOWER |
guide ~1.0x vs. cons ~0.7x prior expectation (pro forma FY2026 year-end) |
LOW |
| EXE |
Guide |
Incremental Marketing/Commercial FCF Target |
BETTER |
guide ~$750M/yr vs. prior target $500M/yr (annual run-rate by 2027-2028) |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A likely EPS/EBITDAX miss on soft summer Henry Hub pricing, combined with negative Zacks ESP (-1.8%) and Sell-leaning rank going into the print, points to further downward EPS revisions for 2H26/2027 even if FY production/capex guidance is reaffirmed. Layered on top is the debt-funded Twin Eagle deal (cash + revolver draw) reversing the deleveraging narrative just as leverage optics matter most, which analysts will likely bake into higher pro forma leverage and slightly lower forward FCF-to-equity estimates, extending the post-print drift lower over the following days rather than a one-day overreaction that fades. |
MEDIUM |