| EXE |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDAX |
MISS |
pred ~$1.53B vs. cons $1.57B |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Report |
Net production |
IN-LINE |
pred ~7.48 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.47 Bcfe/d |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Report |
Marketing margin |
MISS |
pred ~$58M vs. cons $66M |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
2026 net-production guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~7.50 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.50 Bcfe/d (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Guide |
2026 capital-expenditure guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.85B vs. cons $2.85B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| EXE |
Guide |
Marketing and commercial incremental free-cash-flow target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$750M vs. cons $750M (annual run-rate, 2026 onward) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Guide |
Twin Eagle initial annual EBITDA contribution |
UNCHANGED |
guide >$200M vs. cons ~$200M (initial post-close annual run-rate) |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| EXE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
day-5 residual ~-4.0% vs. day-1 residual ~-2.5%; an operationally intact FY2026 guide is unlikely to offset a softer ~ $58M marketing-margin print versus ~$66M consensus, while greater scrutiny of Twin Eagle working-capital, leverage, and earnings-quality assumptions should pull out-period cash-flow estimates lower. |
MEDIUM |