{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDAX",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.53B vs. cons $1.57B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net production",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~7.48 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.47 Bcfe/d",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketing margin",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$58M vs. cons $66M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "2026 net-production guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~7.50 Bcfe/d vs. cons 7.50 Bcfe/d (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 capital-expenditure guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.85B vs. cons $2.85B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketing and commercial incremental free-cash-flow target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$750M vs. cons $750M (annual run-rate, 2026 onward)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Twin Eagle initial annual EBITDA contribution",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >$200M vs. cons ~$200M (initial post-close annual run-rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "day-5 residual ~-4.0% vs. day-1 residual ~-2.5%; an operationally intact FY2026 guide is unlikely to offset a softer ~ $58M marketing-margin print versus ~$66M consensus, while greater scrutiny of Twin Eagle working-capital, leverage, and earnings-quality assumptions should pull out-period cash-flow estimates lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}