EXR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EXR Report Core FFO / share (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$2.07 vs. cons $2.06 MEDIUM
EXR Report Same-store revenue growth (Q2'26 YoY) BEAT pred ~+2.0% vs. cons ~+1.5% MEDIUM
EXR Report Same-store NOI growth (Q2'26 YoY) BEAT pred ~+2.5% vs. cons ~+1.2% (easy -3.1% comp) MEDIUM
EXR Guide FY26 Core FFO/share range (pre-committed reset) BETTER guide raised to ~$8.15-$8.40 (mid ~$8.28) vs. prior/cons ~$8.20 (FY2026) MEDIUM
EXR Guide FY26 Same-store revenue growth BETTER guide raised to ~+1.5% (mid) vs. cons/prior ~+1.0% (range -0.5%/+1.5%) (FY2026) MEDIUM
EXR Guide FY26 Same-store NOI growth BETTER guide raised to ~+1.5% vs. prior mid ~+0.5% (FY2026) LOW
EXR Guide FY26 expense growth (insurance renewal favorable) LOWER guide ~+2.5% vs. prior mid ~+2.75% (range +2.0%/+3.5%) (FY2026) LOW
EXR Guide Peak-season street rate / occupancy trend commentary UNKNOWN pred street rates ~flat-to-+1% vs. April ahead-of-budget pace; occ ~93.5% vs. 94.6% comp (Q2-Q3'26) LOW
EXR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
EXR Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (STABILIZE) A modest, pre-telegraphed guidance raise plus easy NOI comp should drive a small positive day-1 idiosyncratic move, but with the stock already +13% YTD near range highs and the raise partly priced, the beat is largely in the print. Out-period math is mixed: FY revenue/NOI revised up on the leasing-season reset, but decelerating new-customer street rates and tougher H2 comps cap upward estimate momentum, so revisions net only slightly higher — the initial pop holds rather than compounding or fully fading. LOW