| F |
Report |
Adjusted EBIT (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.3B vs. cons ~$2.0B |
MEDIUM |
| F |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.40 vs. cons ~$0.35 |
MEDIUM |
| F |
Report |
Revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$45.5B vs. cons ~$45.0B |
MEDIUM |
| F |
Guide |
FY26 adjusted EBIT guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$9.0–10.5B (narrow to upper half) vs. cons ~$9.5B midpoint (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| F |
Guide |
FY26 free cash flow guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5–6B vs. cons ~$5.5B (FY26) |
LOW |
| F |
Guide |
Q2 volume trough / H2 F-Series-Novelis recovery |
BETTER |
Q2 US sales ~549k units (-10%) vs. cons ~560k, framed as trough with H2 rebuild (Q2/H2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| F |
Guide |
Capital return / supplemental dividend |
UNKNOWN |
reg div $0.15/qtr vs. supplemental ~$0.00–0.15 cons unmodeled (FY26) |
LOW |
| F |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| F |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.0% (FADE) |
A modest Q2 beat on a management-sandbagged low bar plus a narrowing of FY EBIT to the upper half should confirm the Jefferies 'trough + raise' thesis and drive a positive day-1 pop (~+3% residual, beta ~1.45). But the out-period math cuts the other way: the FY midpoint implies ~$6B across Q2–Q4 with a ~$2B commodity headwind hardening into 2H, wider Model e/UEV launch losses, and the non-repeat of Q1's $1.3B IEEPA benefit — so even after a beat, forward EBIT/EPS revisions drift lower. With the stock already +20% off April lows and pre-primed by the upgrade, the initial reaction fades as analysts digest the still-large 2H headwinds; net ~+1% residual by day 5. |
LOW |