{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBIT (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.3B vs. cons ~$2.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.40 vs. cons ~$0.35",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$45.5B vs. cons ~$45.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted EBIT guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.0\u201310.5B (narrow to upper half) vs. cons ~$9.5B midpoint (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 free cash flow guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5\u20136B vs. cons ~$5.5B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 volume trough / H2 F-Series-Novelis recovery",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "Q2 US sales ~549k units (-10%) vs. cons ~560k, framed as trough with H2 rebuild (Q2/H2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / supplemental dividend",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "reg div $0.15/qtr vs. supplemental ~$0.00\u20130.15 cons unmodeled (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest Q2 beat on a management-sandbagged low bar plus a narrowing of FY EBIT to the upper half should confirm the Jefferies 'trough + raise' thesis and drive a positive day-1 pop (~+3% residual, beta ~1.45). But the out-period math cuts the other way: the FY midpoint implies ~$6B across Q2\u2013Q4 with a ~$2B commodity headwind hardening into 2H, wider Model e/UEV launch losses, and the non-repeat of Q1's $1.3B IEEPA benefit \u2014 so even after a beat, forward EBIT/EPS revisions drift lower. With the stock already +20% off April lows and pre-primed by the upgrade, the initial reaction fades as analysts digest the still-large 2H headwinds; net ~+1% residual by day 5.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}