I have solid data now. Let me do one more targeted search on recall/quality news and the Jefferies note details for extra color.# Ford Motor Company (F) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Reports: Tuesday, July 28, 2026, after market close | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
Ford heads into tomorrow's print with the stock near its highs of the year (~$14.69 as of July 27, up from a 2026 low near $11.21 in late March) and fresh sell-side momentum: Jefferies upgraded shares to Buy from Hold just ahead of the print, with the analyst expecting second quarter to represent the low point for volume and believing management could raise guidance, with the firm raising its price target to $17.50 per share. Shares reacted immediately, rising more than 2.8% following the upgrade.
Consensus (per Zacks/Visible Alpha, ~16-30 analysts) is looking for roughly $0.33–0.36 EPS on ~$45–46 billion of revenue, which would represent a mid-single- to low-double-digit percentage decline in both EPS and revenue versus Q2 2025 ($0.37 EPS / $50.2B revenue) — a tough comp that reflects lower volumes, model phase-outs, and a step-up in commodity and launch-investment costs versus a year ago. Ford has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters, but analysts note this quarter lacks a clear positive-surprise catalyst (Zacks' model does not conclusively predict a beat this time).
Ford's Q1 was a blowout: results this quarter — 43.3 billion in revenue, 3.5 billion in adjusted Ebit — reflect a sharp execution and the momentum we're building for our Ford+ plan, and management raised the full-year outlook: we're raising our full year adjusted Ebit guidance to between eight and a half and $10.5 billion.
However, CFO Sheri Houston flagged that the beat was heavily aided by one-time items and that earnings would decelerate sharply in subsequent quarters. Ford booked a $1.3 billion benefit related to tariffs... a one time adjustment largely benefits Ford Blue and Ford Pro at about 700 million and 500 million, respectively, related to tariffs paid between March 2025 in February 2026, which will not repeat in Q2. Management explicitly guided investors to expect the earnings cadence to weaken: fairly consistent, I would say... Q2, Q3, and Q4 as the drag from higher commodity costs and step-up investment spending hits.
Key cost dynamics to watch this quarter: - Commodities: we now expect commodity headwinds of just above $2 billion, about 1 billion higher than our previous estimate, largely due to higher aluminum pricing driven by global supply constraints, and management confirmed this assumes prices "stay where they are," with upside if they retreat. - Novelis recovery: Novelis recovery is progressing as expected. We still expect a 1 billion improvement in Ebit year over year, weighted towards the second half. This is net of 1.5 billion to 2 billion of one-time incremental costs to secure alternatively sourced aluminum until the Novelis facility is operating at full throughput later this year. Watch for confirmation that the hot mill restart (targeted for May) is on track and ramping — Ford Pro's Naveen Kumar said the mill should be back online, and if we have any hiccups, we have contingency plans for the rest of the year. - Investment step-up: additional spend on the Universal EV Platform, Ford Energy, and the Oakville launch is weighted toward the back half.
Management's current full-year targets (set at Q1) that Q2 results/commentary will be measured against: - Company adjusted EBIT: $8.5B–$10.5B - Adjusted free cash flow: $5B–$6B - Capex: $9.5B–$10.5B (including $1.5B for Ford Energy) - Segment EBIT: Ford Pro $6.5B–$7.5B; Ford Blue $4.5B–$5B (raised from prior guide); Model e loss of $4B–$4.5B; Ford Credit EBT ~$2.5B - Industry assumption: SAAR of 16 million to 16.5 million units and flat industry pricing, with the caveat that guidance does not include the potential impacts of a sustained conflict in the Middle East or a significant downturn in the US economy.
Jefferies' bull case is essentially a bet that Q2 volume is the trough and that Ford will nudge full-year EBIT guidance higher on the call — that's the single biggest swing factor for the stock reaction tomorrow.
Ford pre-released U.S. sales data on July 2, giving a partial read on the quarter: - Total second-quarter sales declined 10% to 549,200 vehicles, reflecting the model phase-outs and a 69% drop in daily rental sales. Ford noted that excluding these model transitions and assuming flat rental volumes, Ford's second-quarter sales would have risen an estimated 0.5%, outperforming flat industry sales. - Mix remained favorable: combined sales of Bronco, Explorer and Expedition rose 10.1%, representing the best first-half performance for this high-margin lineup in 25 years, and Bronco set first half and second quarter record and outsold Jeep Wrangler in Q2. - F-Series remained the volume leader, though supply is still normalizing: first-half F-Series sales reflect a retiming of commercial production following last year's aluminum supply shortages. Ford expects supply to recover more fully in the second half of the year. - Software/services momentum continued: paid software subscriptions for Ford Pro Intelligence rose approximately 20% in the first half, surpassing 900,000 active subscriptions — consistent with the ~8%/year growth algorithm management laid out for the $15B+ services business. - EV sales were weak in the quarter (down over 40% y/y per CNBC reporting), consistent with the ongoing Model e portfolio rationalization ahead of the 2027 Universal EV Platform launch.
Several developments will likely come up in Q&A: - Geely/Spain JV: Ford will build electric SUVs at its Valencia, Spain factory through a joint venture that is 66% owned by Ford and 34% owned by Chinese automaker Geely Auto, with the first Geely brand electric SUVs rolling off the production line in 2028, addressing underused European capacity as the Escape/Corsair phase-out continues. - Defense/industrial-base push: Ford is reportedly pursuing its biggest military contract since the Cold War, joining the race to build the U.S. Army's newest tactical truck based on the F-Series heavy duty pickup that would serve dual purposes on the battlefield as both a vehicle and a power source — an extension of the government/onshoring theme Farley emphasized on the Q1 call. - Ford Energy: the new stationary storage business remains a longer-dated margin lever; Barron's noted the power business can boost Ford's operating profit by roughly $500 million by the end of the decade, according to Wall Street, though the same piece flagged the broader growth challenge — Ford generated about $6.5 billion in 2015 operating profit, similar to the amount generated in 2025, highlighting a growth challenge. - Semiconductor supply: Ford signed a long-term memory/storage agreement with Micron in early July, mirroring GM's deal, to secure chips for next-generation vehicle platforms. - Quality/recalls — a cost risk to watch: 2026 has been a heavy recall year, including large July campaigns covering transmission park-system/rollaway risk, second-row seat issues, and Bronco engine-bay wiring fire risk, on top of earlier center-console and seatbelt recalls. This is directly relevant to Ford's warranty cost trajectory, a metric management has repeatedly highlighted as core to its margin bridge (targeting over $1 billion in material and warranty improvement this year). Any commentary on incremental warranty accruals tied to these campaigns is worth watching, even as Farley has publicly emphasized a renewed focus on "flawless" launches and quality reforms.
Consensus is braced for a soft optical quarter (EPS down mid-single digits, revenue down ~10% y/y) driven by tough comps, model transitions, and rising commodity/investment costs — largely already communicated by management on the Q1 call. The stock's recent strength and the Jefferies upgrade suggest the market is positioned for this quarter to mark the trough, with the real catalyst being full-year guidance commentary (an EBIT raise would likely be read very positively) and visibility into H2 tailwinds from Novelis, F-Series supply normalization, and continued share gains in high-margin SUVs and trucks. Execution on cost offsets and clarity on warranty/recall costs, tariff policy, and the EV platform launch timeline will be the swing factors for how the print is received.