F Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
F Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.34 vs. cons $0.33 MEDIUM
F Report Ford Pro adjusted EBIT MISS pred ~$1.60B vs. cons $1.68B MEDIUM
F Report Model e adjusted EBIT MISS pred ~$(1.31)B vs. cons $(1.26)B MEDIUM
F Guide Adjusted EBIT UNCHANGED guide ~$9.50B midpoint vs. cons $9.55B (FY2026) HIGH
F Guide Adjusted free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$5.50B midpoint vs. cons $5.50B (FY2026) MEDIUM
F Guide Ford Pro adjusted EBIT UNCHANGED guide ~$7.00B midpoint vs. cons $7.00B (FY2026) MEDIUM
F Guide Novelis-related production recovery UNCHANGED guide ~150K units vs. cons 150K units (FY2026) MEDIUM
F Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.4% MEDIUM
F Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.1% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A small EPS beat is likely to be judged low quality if Ford Pro and Model e miss while FY2026 guidance remains unchanged. The unchanged $9.50B EBIT midpoint after a strong Q1 implies only about $4.1B of second-half EBIT versus roughly $4.3B embedded in consensus, driving estimate cuts after the initial reaction. MEDIUM