| FANG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS/share |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.00 vs. cons ~$5.25 |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Report |
Free cash flow |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.1B vs. cons ~$1.8B |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Report |
Realized oil price ($/bbl) |
BEAT |
pred ~$88 vs. cons ~$84 |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
FY26 oil production (MBO/d) |
BETTER |
guide ~520+ vs. cons ~518 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| FANG |
Guide |
FY26 cash capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.9B vs. cons ~$3.9B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
Net debt target |
BETTER |
guide ~$10B (hit early) vs. cons ~$11B (exit 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
Capital return mix (buybacks) |
LOWER |
guide ~$0.3B buyback (debt-priority) vs. cons ~$0.8B (Q2/2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Q2 is a strong FCF gusher but the beat is largely 'in the guide' and price-driven, so the surprise is muted. The catalyst is the forward oil tape, not the quarter: oil fell ~4.5% on Aug 2 and US-Iran de-escalation talks begin the same day FANG reports, compressing the geopolitical premium that drove the print. Management's deliberate 'quarter-by-quarter' posture, debt-over-buyback prioritization (light repurchases at all-time highs), and negative Waha gas cap upside. As the out-period oil deck rolls over, sell-side strips down forward realizations/FCF even after a headline beat, so an initial pop fades over the week. |
MEDIUM |