| FANG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.45 vs. cons $6.08 |
HIGH |
| FANG |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.95B vs. cons $4.80B |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Report |
Q2 Oil Production (MBO/d) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~523 vs. cons 520 |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
FY2026 Oil Production Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~522 MBO/d vs. cons 524 MBO/d (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Oil Production Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~518 MBO/d vs. cons 525 MBO/d (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| FANG |
Guide |
FY2026 Capex Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.90B vs. cons $3.95B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Guide |
Net Debt Target ($10B) Timing |
BETTER |
guide ~$10B reached by Q3 2026 vs. prior/cons expectation Q1 2027 |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.4% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FANG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.7% (FADE) |
Q2 EPS/revenue beat is largely pre-telegraphed via the July 13 8-K (realized oil $96.82/bbl already known), so the initial pop should be modest and driven mainly by debt-paydown/buyback commentary and confirmation the $10B net-debt target arrives sooner. Over the following days, the Aug-2 Iran de-escalation-driven WTI/Brent selloff (~4.5%) should pressure analysts to trim H2/FY2026 realized-price and FCF assumptions even after a Q2 beat, since Diamondback's own 'green light' growth framework was explicitly conditioned on sustained war-premium pricing; negative Waha gas differentials (-$2.15/Mcf) also remain an unresolved drag. That combination of implicit out-period cuts and unwind of the geopolitical oil premium argues for an initial-gain fade over the week rather than follow-through. |
LOW |