I'll research FirstEnergy (FE) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, and news.I have the most recent quarterly documents. Let me read the Q1 2026 earnings call and release, plus check for recent news over a wider window.Let me pull recent news and stock price data leading into the report, plus check for any recent 8-Ks.Let me get recent daily news and check the 2025Q4 call for guidance-setting context.Let me check for the latest developments via web search, especially the West Virginia gas plant CPCN decision (hearings were set for mid-July).Two important recent items — a WV PSC development on the gas plant and a Q2 preview. Let me read those.Let me read the Q2 preview article and the data-center frustration piece for consensus expectations and context.I have enough to write a well-grounded preview. Here it is.

FirstEnergy (FE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report date: After market close, Tuesday, July 28, 2026 | Call: 9:00 a.m. ET, Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The one-line setup

FE reports into a tape where the stock has quietly re-rated back toward its highs (~$49.3 as of 7/27, roughly +9% YTD and modestly ahead of the utility group), the near-term numbers are almost a formality given ~75% of capital sits under formula rates, and the entire investor debate has shifted to a single question: can FirstEnergy convert its West Virginia generation + data-center pipeline into an upsized, funded growth plan — and on what timeline? The most important news since the Q1 call is that the answer just got pushed out.

1. What consensus is looking for

Q2 Core EPS: roughly $0.49–$0.56 depending on the shop (Zacks ~$0.49; others ~$0.54–$0.56). Note the wide dispersion — some estimates imply a modest YoY decline vs. ~$0.52 last year, others a high-single-digit gain. This is a low-bar, low-drama quarter.
Revenue: ~$3.6 billion (up mid-single-digits YoY).
The quarter itself doesn't matter much. Management explicitly guided on the Q1 call that most of the remaining 2026 earnings growth vs. 2025 lands in the second half, so a soft-looking Q2 print is expected and pre-baked. Q2 is also weather/storm-sensitive.

Bottom line on the number: a beat or miss of a couple cents should be a non-event. The reaffirmation of full-year guidance and the forward commentary are what move the stock.

2. Guidance — watch for reaffirmation (and any hint of a raise vehicle)

Going in, the framework is: - 2026 Core EPS guidance: $2.62–$2.82 (midpoint $2.72); Street ~$2.74. - $6B of 2026 capex; $36B 2026–2030 Energize365 plan (~+30% vs. prior plan) → ~10% rate-base CAGR. - Core EPS CAGR "near the top end" of 6–8% off the $2.72 midpoint.

I'd expect a straightforward reaffirmation. The real tell is whether management frames a path to raising the plan — because the incremental West Virginia generation, if approved, takes rate-base growth from "just over 10%" to "just over 11%," and CFO Jon Taylor has said they'll "update the plan as soon as practical after approval."

3. The swing factor: West Virginia generation — timeline has slipped

This is the single biggest change since Q1 and where I'd focus.

On the Q1 call (late April), management said hearings were set for mid-July and they anticipated CPCN approval in 2H 2026 — "probably early in the fourth quarter."
What actually happened: the PSC held evidentiary hearings on July 16–17, 2026 on the ~$2.47B, 1,200-MW Mon Power/Potomac Edison gas plant near Morgantown (Monongalia County). Per multiple West Virginia outlets, the Commission is now scheduled to rule by March 2027 — a meaningful slip versus the "early Q4 2026" expectation baked into the Q1 narrative.
The proceeding is contested and politically loaded. Two of three commissioners (Chair Charlotte Lane, a former FirstEnergy lobbyist, and Bill Raney, a former state coal-association president) reportedly pressed coal-sympathetic lines of questioning; the UMWA has intervened; and large industrial customers (WV Energy Users Group) are challenging the proposed ~$1.18/month customer surcharge (AFUDC recovery during construction) as premature since data centers aren't yet contracted.
Why it matters for the model: FE plans to fund up to ~35% of the ~$2.5B plant with equity, and layering the project into the plan is the mechanism to push rate-base growth to ~11% and CAGR toward/through the top of 6–8%. A March 2027 decision (vs. Q4 2026) delays the "update the plan" catalyst by roughly two quarters.

Questions I'd want answered on the call: 1. Does management still expect a favorable CPCN, and is the plan update now a 1H 2027 event? 2. Turbine/EPC/gas-supply contracts — are they still holding the ~$2.5B cost estimate in a seller's market, and are equipment slots protected for the 2031 in-service date? 3. Does the coal-vs-gas dynamic at the PSC change their confidence or approach?

4. Data centers — the "prove it" quarter

On the Q1 call, Tierney said ~4 GW of the pipeline was in final contract negotiations expected to be contracted "within this quarter" (i.e., Q2), which would nearly double contracted demand. He also cited ~1.8 GW of "highly credible" WV projects (+50% since February) and 6+ GW of broader WV dialogue.

This is a direct, checkable promise. Watch for: confirmation that those ~4 GW were signed to construction agreements, updated contracted-demand figures, and any spillover beyond West Virginia. Signed contracts also de-risk the gas-plant surcharge argument (the "data centers ultimately pay" thesis that FE's own witnesses leaned on at the PSC). A slip here would dent the growth narrative alongside the CPCN delay.

5. Regulatory calendar — a lot of pots on the stove

Several filings from the Q1 call should have progressed: - West Virginia base rate case (filed ~May): ~$1B rate-base increase since 2023; new rates targeted Q1 2027. - Ohio 3-year rate plan (formally filed ~May): capex up ~15% to ~$800M/yr; bill impact <3%/yr; new rates mid-2027. - Pennsylvania: DSIC now recovering ~50% of PA capex; watch the default-service reform proposal (framed as an $80M customer-savings mechanism) and any read-through from peers (a PA peer recently pulled a rate case). - New Jersey: management is being deliberate on timing given Gov. Sherrill's executive orders — "no surprises." Any signal on a JCP&L filing is notable. - Maryland: working through the recently passed Omnibus bill (possible shift from historical test year). - PJM transmission: 2026 Open Window (Board approvals ~1Q 2027); FE has won >$5B competitively over four years, and ~80–85% of transmission capex is core (non-competitive) work — a durable growth engine.

6. Balance sheet & financing — the underappreciated positive

Moody's moved the outlook to positive in March 2026 on an improved credit profile; consolidated ROE ~9.8% (TTM).
Financing plan: ~$1.7B of remaining subsidiary debt for the year plus a modest amount of common equity; the 5-year plan contemplates up to ~$2B of equity/equity-like (incl. ~$100M/yr from benefit programs), i.e., roughly ~1% of market cap in common issuance annually.
Watch: any change to equity needs. If WV generation is confirmed, incremental equity (up to ~35% of the project) is the offset investors will scrutinize for dilution.

7. Cost / affordability story

FE has cut base O&M >$200M (~15%) since 2022, with O&M down ~5% in Q1, and says each pending rate case carries lower comparable O&M than last approved. Rates run ~20% below in-state peers (T&D ~35% below). This "affordability cushion" is management's political shield in PA/NJ/OH — expect it to feature heavily, especially against the WV surcharge criticism.

Scorecard for the print & call

Positive if: guidance reaffirmed (or growth framed toward top of range); the ~4 GW of data-center contracts are confirmed signed; management sounds confident on a favorable WV CPCN despite the March-2027 timeline; O&M discipline continues.

Negative if: the WV gas-plant path looks genuinely at risk (coal politics), data-center contracts slip again, or the timeline delay pressures the "plan update" catalyst investors have been waiting for; any equity/dilution surprise.

My read: the fundamentals (formula-rate earnings, ~10% rate-base CAGR, positive credit trajectory) are solid and the Q2 number is largely irrelevant. The stock's next leg hinges on catalysts that just got pushed to early 2027 — so this call is more likely to be about reassurance on timing than a fresh upgrade. Expect management to lean hard on the data-center pipeline and affordability record to bridge the gap.

Note: Q2 EPS consensus figures vary by provider ($0.49–$0.56) and should be treated as approximate; the WV PSC decision timeline (now ~March 2027) is sourced from West Virginia news coverage of the July 16–17 hearings and differs from the "early Q4 2026" expectation management gave on the Q1 call.