Report date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (after market close) | Call: Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 9:00 a.m. ET
FE shares have had a solid 2026, rising from roughly $45 at the start of the year to the high-$40s/near-$50 today, touching an all-time closing high above $51 in April before pulling back into the mid-$40s in May and recovering since. The stock currently sits near $49, with a 52-week range of roughly $40.70–$52.34. Sell-side sentiment is constructive: consensus is a "Moderate Buy" with average price targets clustering around $52–$53 (implying high-single-digit upside), and several brokers (Barclays, Wells Fargo) carry Overweight ratings with targets in the $53–$55 range, while others (Jefferies, UBS, New Street) sit at Hold/Neutral in the low-$50s.
Estimates for the quarter are notably scattered across providers — a useful reminder to focus on guidance reaffirmation rather than a single "beat/miss" number: - Barchart/Visible Alpha-style consensus: Core EPS ~$0.56, up 7.7% from $0.52 a year ago, with FY2026 Core EPS consensus of $2.74. - Zacks consensus: $0.49, which would be a 5.8% year-over-year decline, on revenue of $3.59 billion (+6.3% y/y). - Other trackers (MarketBeat/LSEG, ChartMill): estimates ranging from $0.51–$0.60, revenue around $3.6–$3.75 billion.
The dispersion matters: management flagged at Q1 that most of 2026's earnings growth versus 2025 would show up in the second half of the year, so a soft or roughly flat headline Q2 number would not necessarily be a red flag if the full-year guidance range is reaffirmed.
FirstEnergy's Q1 2026 print set an upbeat tone: FirstEnergy Corp. today reported first quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $405 million, or $0.70 per basic and diluted share, on revenue of $4.2 billion, versus GAAP earnings of $360 million, or $0.62 per share, a year earlier. Core Earnings (non-GAAP) in the first quarter of 2026 were $0.72 per share, a 7.5% increase compared to Core Earnings of $0.67 per share in the first quarter of 2025.
Crucially, management reaffirmed the full-year framework: FirstEnergy reaffirmed its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share, supported by the Energize365 capital investment plan of $6 billion in 2026, and reaffirmed long-term Core EPS compounded annual growth near the top end of 6-8% from 2026 to 2030 off a $36 billion 2026-2030 capital plan that represents an increase of nearly 30% over the prior five-year plan.
On the call, CFO Jon Taylor explicitly set expectations for the shape of the year: FirstEnergy is "reaffirming this year's capital investment plan of $6 billion and our core earnings guidance range of $2.62 a share to $2.82 a share, with most of the remaining earnings growth compared to 2025, materializing in the second half of the year." Investors should keep this in mind heading into Q2 — a quarter that is not expected to carry the bulk of the growth story.
Segment drivers in Q1 that likely persist into Q2: Distribution segment Core Earnings increased $0.03/share on higher rates and lower operating expenses; Integrated segment Core Earnings increased $0.01/share as transmission rate base grew 19% and customer demand strengthened, partly offset by higher storm restoration expenses and financing costs; and Stand-Alone Transmission Core Earnings increased $0.02/share on an 11% rate base increase. Cost discipline was also a highlight, with base O&M down close to 5% year-over-year and management noting "in each of our base rate filings planned for this year, our comparable base O&M is lower than what was approved in the last rate case."
FE has multiple rate proceedings moving through the pipeline simultaneously, and Q2 commentary should update timing/status on each:
Affordability has become the dominant regulatory/political narrative across FE's footprint. On the Q1 call, CEO Brian Tierney emphasized that FE's rates run roughly 20% below in-state peers, with the transmission & distribution bill component about 35% lower, and pointed to over $200 million (15%) of cumulative base O&M reductions since 2022 as evidence of "walking the talk" on cost control. Watch for further commentary on rising PJM capacity costs — the most recent PJM Base Residual Auction cleared near the new $329.17/MW-day price cap, up roughly 22% from the prior auction — and how FE is positioning around PJM's proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement mechanism and FERC's co-location/large-load NOPR, both of which Tierney was notably skeptical of on the Q1 call, stating flatly that FE will not sign contracts that require it to take generation/commodity risk.
This remains a key growth optionality story. As of Q1, management cited roughly 1.8 GW of "highly credible" West Virginia data-center projects (up 50% since February), conversations covering over 6 GW of additional West Virginia load, and roughly 4 GW of demand company-wide in final contract negotiations that management expected to convert to signed, contracted status within Q2 2026 — effectively doubling contracted demand. The Q2 update on how much of that pipeline actually converted to firm contracts (and on what tariff/cost-allocation terms, an area where FE has resisted a standardized large-load tariff in favor of case-by-case special contracts) will be an important data point for the long-term growth algorithm.
Credit quality has been improving — Moody's raised FE's senior unsecured outlook to positive in March 2026 — and the company successfully priced an oversubscribed $850 million FirstEnergy Pennsylvania debt deal plus smaller MAIT/ATSI transmission subsidiary offerings in Q1. For the balance of 2026, management guided to roughly $1.7 billion of additional subsidiary debt issuance and only modest common equity issuance (part of a five-year plan of up to $2 billion in equity/equity-like securities, including ~$100 million/year from employee benefit programs), which should keep dilution manageable even as the capital plan grows. Any incremental equity needs tied to the West Virginia gas plant (management has previously discussed funding up to ~35% of that project with new equity) would be worth flagging.
Given the wide range of Street estimates and management's own signal that H2 carries the bulk of 2026's earnings growth, the Q2 print itself may be a secondary catalyst versus the accompanying commentary on: (1) reaffirmation (or any tweak) of the $2.62–$2.82 full-year Core EPS guidance and the 6–8% long-term CAGR (targeted near the top end); (2) progress/timing on the Ohio TYRP, West Virginia base rate case, and — most importantly — the Maidsville gas-plant CPCN decision; (3) conversion of the data-center pipeline into signed, contracted load; and (4) any incremental read-through from PJM capacity costs and affordability politics that could affect the pace or size of future rate requests. With the stock trading modestly below sell-side price targets and near multi-year highs, the market appears to be underwriting continued execution on Energize365 — making regulatory and data-center pipeline updates as important as the reported EPS number itself.