FirstEnergy Corp (FE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

FirstEnergy Corp

Ticker

NYSE: FE

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Earnings Date

July 28, 2026 (after market close); Conference call July 29, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET

Last Earnings

Q1 2026 reported April 28, 2026

Prepared

July 28, 2026

Sector / ETF Benchmark

Regulated Electric Utility / XLU

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is balanced-to-slightly-positive — consensus Core EPS of $0.51 is a modest bar given management's back-half-weighted guidance, and the biggest swing factor is whether FE can announce contracted data center demand nearly doubling (as flagged on the Q1 call) and provide an update on the West Virginia CPCN hearings held in mid-July.

Heading into Q2 2026, FirstEnergy faces a deliberately low consensus bar: the street is modeling Core EPS of ~$0.51, well below Q1's $0.72 and Q3's typical seasonal peak, consistent with management's explicit guidance that "most of the remaining earnings growth compared to 2025 will materialize in the second half of the year." The guidance posture is unchanged and confident — FY 2026 Core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82 was reaffirmed at Q1 earnings and again in the June 1 investor presentation, with management targeting near the top end of the 6–8% long-term CAGR. Estimate revisions have been modestly negative since Q1 (Q2 consensus slipped from $0.57 to $0.51 post-print), reflecting the seasonal trough and not a fundamental deterioration, while FY 2026 consensus of $2.78 sits comfortably within the guidance range. The stock has essentially flatlined since Q1 earnings (FE indexed at ~99.5 vs. SPY at ~103.8), underperforming the market but roughly in line with XLU, suggesting the market is not pricing in a beat or a miss — it is waiting for catalysts. The key wildcard is the West Virginia CPCN outcome: hearings concluded mid-July and management guided for approval "early in Q4," but any earlier signal or incremental data center contract announcement (management flagged ~4 GW in final negotiations expected to nearly double contracted demand within Q2) could be a meaningful positive catalyst on the call.

Bar: Consensus Core EPS of $0.51 is a low bar — Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter for FE, and management has explicitly guided for back-half earnings weighting. The prior year Q2 2025 actual was $0.52, so the street is essentially modeling flat YoY, which should be beatable given formula-rate transmission growth and O&M discipline.

Guidance/Tone: Management tone has been consistently confident since Q1 — no guidance revision, reaffirmed at the June investor presentation, and the West Virginia data center pipeline grew 50% between February and April. No signs of caution.

Estimate Trajectory: Q2 2026 Core EPS estimates drifted down ~9% from $0.57 (as of May 3, 2026) to $0.51 (current), likely reflecting seasonal shaping rather than fundamental cuts. FY 2026 estimates are essentially flat at $2.78 vs. $2.83 at the post-Q1 baseline — no meaningful divergence from guidance.

Stock Setup: FE trades at roughly 18x NTM Core EPS, in line with regulated utility peers. The stock has not re-rated despite accelerating CapEx and data center optionality, suggesting the market is waiting for execution proof points (CPCN approval, contracted demand doubling) before awarding a premium multiple.

Wildcard: West Virginia CPCN regulatory outcome and the data center contracted demand update. Management guided for ~4 GW in final contract negotiations expected to nearly double contracted demand within Q2 — if confirmed on the call, this would be a significant positive catalyst for the WV generation investment thesis.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a low bar for Q2 — Core EPS of $0.51 implies flat YoY growth in the seasonally weakest quarter, and total revenue of $3.54B is below Q2 2025's $3.38B on a reported basis. Core EPS is the primary swing factor; transmission revenue growth and O&M discipline are the key drivers to watch.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

FY 2026 Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint

Core EPS (Operating EPS) ($)

$0.72

$0.52

$0.51

-1.9%

$2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 mid)

N/A (quarterly vs. FY)

Total Revenues ($B)

$4.20B

$3.38B

$3.54B

+4.7%

N/A (no quarterly rev guidance)

N/A

Regulated Transmission Revenue ($M)

$516M

$456M

$512M

+12.3%

N/A

N/A

Regulated Distribution Revenue ($B)

$1.99B

$1.68B

$1.74B

+3.8%

N/A

N/A

Property Additions / CapEx ($B)

$1.26B

$1.22B

$1.46B

+19.7%

$6.0B FY 2026

N/A (quarterly vs. FY)

Operating EBITDA ($B)

$0.99B

$1.15B

$1.36B

+18.3%

N/A

N/A

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q2 2026 Consensus as of July 28, 2026. Core EPS = EPS-Diluted - Operating($). Q1 2026 Operating EBITDA actual reflects the $989.5M reported figure. Note: Q2 2025 revenue actuals reflect reported figures; Q2 2026 consensus revenue of $3.54B implies modest YoY growth driven by formula-rate transmission step-ups.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Core EPS & Total Revenue)

Quarter

KPI

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

Core EPS

$0.72

$0.73

-1.4%

In-Line

Q1 2026

Total Revenue

$4.20B

$3.83B

+9.7%

Beat

Q4 2025

Core EPS

$0.53

$0.61

-13.1%

Miss

Q4 2025

Total Revenue

$3.80B

$3.12B

+21.8%

Beat

Q3 2025

Core EPS

$0.83

$0.78

+6.4%

Beat

Q3 2025

Total Revenue

$4.15B

$3.90B

+6.4%

Beat

Q2 2025

Core EPS

$0.52

$0.49

+6.1%

Beat

Q2 2025

Total Revenue

$3.38B

$3.36B

+0.6%

In-Line

Q1 2025

Core EPS

$0.67

$0.60

+11.7%

Beat

Q1 2025

Total Revenue

$3.77B

$3.48B

+8.3%

Beat

Q4 2024

Core EPS

$0.87

$0.71

+22.5%

Beat

Q4 2024

Total Revenue

$3.18B

$4.06B

-21.7%

Miss

Q3 2024

Core EPS

$0.76

$0.90

-15.6%

Miss

Q3 2024

Total Revenue

$3.73B

$3.92B

-4.8%

Miss

Q2 2024

Core EPS

$0.56

$0.55

+1.8%

In-Line

Q2 2024

Total Revenue

$3.28B

$3.27B

+0.3%

In-Line

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Core EPS = EPS-Diluted - Operating($). Beat/miss pattern: FE has beaten Core EPS in 4 of the last 8 quarters, missed in 3, and was in-line in 1; revenue beats have been more consistent in recent quarters (Q1–Q3 2025) but the series is noisy due to pass-through fuel cost volatility. The Q4 2024 Core EPS beat (+22.5%) was the standout; Q3 2024 and Q4 2025 were notable misses driven by timing items.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: FY 2026 Core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82 has been unchanged since the Q4 2025 earnings call and was reaffirmed at the June 1 investor presentation. No guidance revision; tone is consistently confident with management targeting near the top end of the 6–8% long-term CAGR and accelerating CapEx deployment.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings, Apr 28, 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

FY 2026 Core EPS

$2.62–$2.82 per share ($2.72 midpoint)

Unchanged

$2.78

Reaffirmed at June 1, 2026 investor presentation; management targeting near top end of 6–8% CAGR range

FY 2026 CapEx / Property Additions

$6.0 billion

Unchanged

$5.87B (VA consensus)

Reaffirmed at June 1 investor presentation; $36B 2026–2030 plan outlined; ~75% in formula-rate recovery mechanisms

Long-Term Core EPS CAGR (2026–2030)

6–8%, targeting near top end

Unchanged

N/A

Reaffirmed; growth based off $2.72 midpoint; rate base CAGR ~10% rising to ~11% upon WV CPCN approval

WV Generation CPCN (1.2 GW CCGT)

Hearings mid-July; approval expected 2H 2026 (likely early Q4)

Hearings completed July 15–16, 2026

N/A

Evidentiary hearings held July 15–16; approval upon which rate base CAGR rises from ~10% to ~11%; $2.5B estimated plant cost ($2.7B including 70 MW solar)

Ohio Three-Year Rate Plan (TYRP)

Formal filing planned May 2026; new rates effective mid-2027

Filed May 22, 2026; ~$254M Year 1 revenue increase proposed

N/A

Filed on schedule; ~$2.5B capex through 2027–2030; annual residential bill impact <3%

West Virginia Base Rate Case

Filing planned May 2026; new rates effective Q1 2027

Filed May 15, 2026; Inflation & Investment Adjustment for $76M revenue in two phases

N/A

Filed on schedule; $38M annual increases effective Aug 1, 2026 and Jun 1, 2027

Data Center Contracted Demand

~4 GW in final contract negotiations; expected to nearly double contracted demand within Q2 2026

Contracted demand up 32% per June investor presentation; 19,125 MW total pipeline by 2035

N/A

↑ Positive momentum; WV pipeline grew 50% since Feb; broader pipeline approaching contracted status faster than indicated

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 Core EPS estimates have drifted ~9% lower since the post-Q1 baseline (from $0.57 to $0.51), consistent with seasonal shaping rather than fundamental cuts. FY 2026 estimates are essentially flat and sit comfortably within guidance, suggesting no meaningful divergence risk. The gap between current consensus ($2.78) and the guidance midpoint ($2.72) implies the street is already modeling near the top end of the range.

KPI (Period)

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (May 3, 2026)

Current Consensus (Jul 28, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint

Core EPS — Q2 2026

$0.57

$0.51

-10.5%

No quarterly guidance

No quarterly guidance

N/A

N/A

Core EPS — FY 2026

$2.83

$2.78

-1.8%

$2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 mid)

Unchanged ($2.62–$2.82)

0%

+2.2% above midpoint

Core EPS — FY 2027

$3.02

$2.98

-1.3%

6–8% CAGR off $2.72 mid = ~$2.89–$2.94

Unchanged

0%

+1.4–3.1% above implied range

Total Revenue — Q2 2026

$3.59B

$3.54B

-1.4%

No quarterly guidance

No quarterly guidance

N/A

N/A

Total Revenue — FY 2026

$15.24B

$15.59B

+2.3%

No FY revenue guidance

No FY revenue guidance

N/A

N/A

Property Additions (CapEx) — FY 2026

$6.18B

$5.87B

-5.0%

$6.0B

Unchanged ($6.0B)

0%

-2.2% below guidance

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of May 3, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after April 28, 2026 earnings). Q2 2026 Core EPS estimate decline of ~10.5% reflects seasonal shaping (Q2 is FE's weakest quarter) rather than fundamental deterioration — FY 2026 consensus is essentially flat and sits above the guidance midpoint, consistent with management's top-end-of-range targeting.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: FE has essentially flatlined since Q1 earnings (indexed ~99.5 vs. base of 100), underperforming the S&P 500 (+3.8%) but roughly in line with XLU (-1.2%). The stock's muted reaction to constructive Q1 results and the June investor presentation suggests the market is waiting for execution proof points — specifically the WV CPCN approval and data center contract announcements — before re-rating.

FE vs. XLU (Utilities ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 28, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance Summary (Apr 28 – Jul 28, 2026): FE: -0.5% (from $49.58 to $49.32) | XLU: -1.2% (from $46.25 to $45.68) | SPY: +3.8% (from $711.69 to $739.09). FE initially sold off post-Q1 earnings (touching a low near $43.82 on May 15), then recovered through June and July as the data center narrative strengthened and the WV CPCN hearing timeline became clearer. The June 1 investor presentation (reaffirming guidance and outlining the $36B plan) provided a modest catalyst. The stock has been range-bound in the $47–$50 zone since mid-June, consistent with a market that is constructive but not yet willing to pay up ahead of the CPCN outcome. Sector ETF used: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund), appropriate for FE's regulated electric utility sub-sector.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the West Virginia CPCN evidentiary hearings completing in mid-July — a regulatory approval (expected early Q4) would lift FE's rate base CAGR from ~10% to ~11% and validate the data center generation investment thesis. The June investor presentation also confirmed contracted data center demand is up 32% since Q1.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary since FE's Q1 2026 earnings (April 28, 2026) is broadly positive for FE's investment thesis — data center demand acceleration, transmission CapEx expansion, and PJM bilateral contracting advocacy are consistent themes across AEP, EXC, PPL, ETR, NEE, and PCG. The two peers that have already reported Q2 2026 (NEE on July 24 and PCG on July 23) both reaffirmed guidance and highlighted continued data center pipeline growth, providing a constructive read-through for FE.

Note on peer selection: Only commentary from after FE's Q1 2026 earnings (April 28, 2026) is included below, covering Q1 2026 earnings calls (late April/early May 2026), the ETR Investor Day (June 9, 2026), and Q2 2026 earnings calls for NEE (July 24) and PCG (July 23). Prior-quarter results commentary has been excluded per the user's instruction.

NEE (NextEra Energy) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 24, 2026) — DIRECT Q2 READ-THROUGH

Relevance to FE: NEE is the largest regulated utility and a bellwether for the sector. Its Q2 2026 results and commentary provide the most direct read-through for FE's Q2 print.

PCG (PG&E Corporation) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 23, 2026) — DIRECT Q2 READ-THROUGH

Relevance to FE: PCG is a large regulated utility with a significant data center pipeline and a focus on customer affordability — themes directly relevant to FE's regulatory strategy.

AEP (American Electric Power) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 5, 2026)

Relevance to FE: AEP is FE's closest peer in PJM with significant Ohio and West Virginia overlap. AEP's data center pipeline and PJM commentary are the most directly relevant read-throughs for FE.

EXC (Exelon) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026)

Relevance to FE: EXC is FE's most direct PJM peer (overlapping service territories in Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic). EXC's transmission strategy and Pennsylvania regulatory commentary are highly relevant.

PPL Corporation — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 8, 2026)

Relevance to FE: PPL has significant Pennsylvania overlap with FE and is pursuing a similar data center + transmission growth strategy. PPL's Pennsylvania rate case settlement and PJM commentary are directly relevant.

ETR (Entergy) — Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Relevance to FE: ETR's Investor Day provided the most comprehensive industry update on data center demand, generation investment, and regulatory strategy since FE's Q1 earnings. ETR's service territory (Gulf Coast) is different from FE's, but the macro themes are directly relevant.

Peer Commentary Summary Table

Peer

Event / Date

Key Theme

FE Read-Through

Signal

NEE

Q2 2026 Earnings (Jul 24)

Large load updated to 8 GW by 2032; 21 GW interest; FERC show cause orders positive

Validates FE WV pipeline; bilateral contracting momentum

Positive

PCG

Q2 2026 Earnings (Jul 23)

Pipeline >12 GW; 1.8 GW by 2030; guidance reaffirmed; affordability focus

Sector earnings on track; affordability strategy consistent with FE

Positive

AEP

Q1 2026 Earnings (May 5)

63 GW contracted load; Google WV data center; WV ROE raised to 9.75%; CapEx to $78B

WV demand real; constructive WV regulatory environment; PJM bilateral push

Positive

EXC

Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6)

Transmission rate base 16% CAGR; PECO rate case withdrawn; PA affordability pressure; Q2 ~15% of FY

PA regulatory caution; back-half earnings weighting confirmed; transmission growth validated

Mixed

PPL

Q1 2026 Earnings (May 8)

PA pipeline 28.3 GW; rate case settlement <4% bill increase; 6-8% CAGR top end

PA demand robust; constructive PA regulatory precedent; growth algorithm consistent

Positive

ETR

Investor Day (Jun 9)

ESA backlog doubled; 7-12 GW DC + 3-5 GW industrial; CapEx to $67B; >8% EPS CAGR

Hyperscaler demand real at scale; turbine scarcity risk; FE CAGR may be conservative

Positive

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells since Q1 earnings. The only Form 4 activity consists of routine director phantom stock unit awards (July 1, 2026) and a single CEO tax-withholding share disposition (June 1, 2026). Nothing notable — no clustered buys, no unusual sale size, no insider signal either way.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Units / Shares

Transaction Date

Note

TIERNEY BRIAN X

Chairman, President & CEO

Share Disposition (Code F)

16,991 shares

June 1, 2026

Tax withholding on vesting — not a discretionary open-market sale; routine obligation-driven disposition

Croom Jana T

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

DEMETRIOU STEVEN J.

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

Hicks Lisa Winston

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

KALETA PAUL J

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

ONEIL JAMES F

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

SOMERHALDER JOHN W II

Director

Award (Code A) — Common Stock

898 shares

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

Turner Leslie M

Director

Award (Code A) — Phantom Stock Units

898 units

July 1, 2026

Routine quarterly director compensation award; not a market transaction

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 filings). No open-market buys (Code P) or open-market sells (Code S) were filed in the period from April 28, 2026 through July 28, 2026. The CEO's June 1 disposition (Code F) is a tax-withholding transaction on vesting — an obligation-driven event, not a discretionary sale signal. The July 1 director awards are routine quarterly compensation grants. There is no insider signal — positive or negative — heading into Q2 2026 earnings.

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Disclosures & Data Sources