FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Company | FirstEnergy Corp. |
Ticker | NYSE: FE |
Earnings Date | July 29, 2026 — 9:00 AM ET |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Sector ETF Benchmark | XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) |
1. Earnings Preview
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive but not a high bar — consensus Core EPS of ~$0.51 sits below the prior-year Q2 actual of $0.56, and the biggest swing factor is whether management can confirm that the ~4 GW of data center pipeline in final contract negotiations has converted to contracted demand, which would nearly double contracted load and materially de-risk the long-term CapEx story.
Heading into Q2 2026, FirstEnergy's bar is relatively low: consensus Core EPS of ~$0.51 is below the $0.56 reported in Q2 2025, reflecting the company's own guidance that most 2026 earnings growth materializes in the second half of the year. Management reaffirmed full-year Core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82/share and the long-term CAGR target near the top end of 6–8% on the Q1 2026 call, and tone has been consistently confident — Moody's raised its outlook to positive in late March, and the company's $1.4B Q1 capital deployment (up 33% YoY) demonstrates execution. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (from ~$0.57 to ~$0.51 for Q2), likely reflecting seasonal earnings weighting rather than fundamental deterioration, and the full-year consensus of ~$2.78 sits comfortably within guidance. The stock has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 earnings date (FE ~$49.32 vs. ~$49.58 at close on April 28), underperforming XLU modestly, suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst rather than pricing in a beat. The single biggest wildcard is the West Virginia data center pipeline and CPCN hearing outcome: hearings for the 1.2 GW CCGT were scheduled for mid-July, and any regulatory approval signal or incremental contracted demand announcement could be the catalyst that re-rates the stock toward the upper end of its peer multiple range.
2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations
Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a low bar on Core EPS (below prior-year Q2 actual), consistent with management’s own guidance that H2 carries the bulk of 2026 growth. Transmission revenue and CapEx deployment are the bigger swing factors — both have been running ahead of prior-year pace and any acceleration would be the more meaningful read-through for the long-term thesis.
Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Core EPS — Operating (Non-GAAP) ($) | $0.72 | $0.52 | $0.51 | −2.0% | $2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 midpoint) | ~+2.0% above midpoint (FY consensus $2.78 vs. $2.72) |
Transmission Revenue ($M) | $516M | $456M | $512M | +12.3% | N/A — no quarterly guidance | N/A |
Total Revenue ($M) | $4,202M | N/A — not in VA for Q2 2025 | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Property Additions / CapEx ($M) | $1,255M | $1,218M | $1,457M | +19.6% | $6.0B full-year plan | N/A — quarterly cadence not guided |
Industrial Volume — Regulated Distribution (GWh) | 12,899 GWh | 12,969 GWh | N/A — not in VA for Q2 2026 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sources: Core EPS — Operating: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS). Transmission Revenue: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RTCheckpending). Property Additions: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/CF). Industrial Volume: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RD). Q1 2026 Total Revenue from FE Q1 2026 Earnings Release. FY 2026 guidance from FE Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 29, 2026).
Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Core EPS — Operating)
Quarter | Reported Core EPS ($) | Consensus at Time ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $0.56 | $0.55 | +2.3% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $0.76 | N/A — VA consensus not available at time of print | N/A | N/A |
Q4 2024 | $0.87 | N/A — VA consensus not available at time of print | N/A | N/A |
Q1 2025 | $0.67 | $0.60 | +11.5% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $0.52 | $0.49 | +7.0% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $0.83 | $0.78 | +7.0% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $0.53 | $0.61 | −13.1% | Miss |
Q1 2026 | $0.72 | $0.73 | −1.4% | In-Line |
Pattern: FE has beaten Core EPS consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters where data is available, with the Q4 2025 miss being the notable exception (driven by seasonal earnings weighting and higher financing costs). The Q1 2026 print was essentially in-line. The consistent beat pattern in Q2 and Q3 historically suggests the bar for Q2 2026 may be beatable, though the Q4 2025 miss is a reminder that the company’s H2-weighted earnings profile can create volatility in lighter quarters.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS). Consensus figures represent latest available VA consensus at time of reporting where available.
3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call — management reaffirmed the $2.62–$2.82 full-year Core EPS range and the 6–8% long-term CAGR target near the top end. Tone is constructive and confident, with the West Virginia CPCN hearing (mid-July) and Ohio TYRP filing (May 2026) as the two most significant post-earnings developments to watch.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 29, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY 2026 Core EPS | $2.62–$2.82/share ($2.72 midpoint) | Unchanged | $2.78 | Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; consensus sits ~2% above midpoint, within range |
Long-Term Core EPS CAGR (2026–2030) | Near top end of 6–8% range, off $2.72 midpoint | Unchanged | N/A — not modeled by VA | Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; consistent with prior guidance |
FY 2026 Capital Investment Plan | $6.0 billion | Unchanged | $5.87B (VA FY consensus) | Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; Q1 deployment of $1.4B (+33% YoY) tracking ahead of pace |
5-Year CapEx Plan (2026–2030) | $36 billion (Energize365) | Unchanged | N/A | Represents ~30% increase vs. prior 5-year plan; 10% rate base CAGR target through 2030 |
Ohio TYRP Filing | Pre-filing notice April 22; formal filing May 2026; ~$800M/yr investment; <3% annual bill impact; rates effective mid-2027 | Formal filing made in May 2026 per plan | N/A | On track; constructive regulatory posture; new forward-looking legislation enables TYRP structure |
West Virginia CPCN (1.2 GW CCGT) | Hearings mid-July; approval expected 2H 2026 (likely early Q4); ~$2.5B project cost; online 2031 | Hearings proceeded as scheduled in mid-July | N/A | Approval outcome is key catalyst; up to 35% equity-funded if AFUDC cash recovery approved |
Consolidated ROE Target | 9.5–10% target; Q1 2026 trailing 12-month ROE: 9.8% | Unchanged | N/A | Tracking within target range; formula rate investments driving improvement |
Source: FE Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 29, 2026); FE Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 28, 2026); FE Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation (April 28, 2026). Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data for FY 2026 consensus figures.
4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker
Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 Core EPS estimates have drifted ~9% lower since the Q1 2026 earnings print (from ~$0.57 to ~$0.51), consistent with management’s own commentary that H2 carries the bulk of 2026 growth — this is a seasonal pattern, not a fundamental cut. Full-year estimates are essentially flat since the Q1 print, suggesting the street is not revising the annual thesis, just re-phasing the quarterly cadence.
KPI & Period | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 5, 2026) | Current Consensus (July 28, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Core EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.567 | $0.515 | −9.2% | No quarterly guidance provided | No quarterly guidance provided | N/A | N/A |
Core EPS — FY 2026 | $2.809 | $2.775 | −1.2% | $2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 midpoint) | $2.62–$2.82 (unchanged) | Unchanged | +2.0% above midpoint |
Transmission Revenue — Q2 2026 ($M) | $496M | $512M | +3.2% | No quarterly guidance | No quarterly guidance | N/A | N/A |
Transmission Revenue — FY 2026 ($M) | $2,031M | $2,019M | −0.6% | No annual guidance | No annual guidance | N/A | N/A |
Property Additions / CapEx — Q2 2026 ($M) | $1,396M | $1,457M | +4.4% | $6.0B full-year | $6.0B full-year (unchanged) | Unchanged | N/A — quarterly cadence not guided |
Property Additions / CapEx — FY 2026 ($M) | $6,097M | $5,875M | −3.6% | $6.0B | $6.0B (unchanged) | Unchanged | −2.1% below guidance |
Commentary: The Q2 Core EPS estimate drift of ~9% lower since the Q1 print is entirely consistent with management’s explicit guidance that “most of the remaining earnings growth compared to 2025 materializes in the second half of the year.” The full-year estimate is essentially flat (−1.2%), confirming the street is re-phasing rather than cutting. Transmission revenue estimates for Q2 have actually been revised higher (+3.2%) since the Q1 print, reflecting continued formula rate investment momentum — this is the more important signal for the long-term thesis. CapEx consensus for FY 2026 sits ~3.6% below the $6.0B guidance, suggesting modest upside risk to deployment if the West Virginia CPCN is approved and contract signings accelerate.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Core EPS: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS. Transmission Revenue: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RTCheckpending. Property Additions: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/CF. As-of-date baseline: May 5, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings).
5. Stock Performance
Key Takeaway: FE has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 2026 earnings date, down ~0.5% vs. the April 28 close of $49.58, while XLU is down ~1.2% and the S&P 500 is up ~3.9% over the same period. The stock’s underperformance vs. the broader market reflects the defensive utility rotation dynamic — as risk appetite returned post-tariff uncertainty, capital rotated out of utilities. FE’s 12-month performance (+19.2%) has been driven primarily by multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from 9.27x to 10.66x, +15%), with earnings growth contributing the remainder.
FE vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026)
Date | FE (Indexed) | XLU (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 28, 2026 (Base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 8, 2026 | 89.4 | 96.7 | 103.6 |
May 22, 2026 | 93.4 | 98.1 | 104.8 |
Jun 12, 2026 | 94.8 | 96.3 | 104.2 |
Jun 26, 2026 | 97.8 | 99.9 | 102.4 |
Jul 14, 2026 | 99.3 | 98.8 | 105.6 |
Jul 28, 2026 (Latest) | 99.5 | 98.8 | 103.9 |
Note: All three series indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 close (FE: $49.58, XLU: $46.25, SPY: $711.69). Latest prices as of July 28, 2026 close (FE: $49.32, XLU: $45.68, SPY: $739.09). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.
Valuation Context
Horizon | FE Price Change | NTM EV/EBITDA Change | NTM P/E Change | Commentary |
1 Month | +2.75% | +3.65% (9.27x → 10.29x) | +3.55% (16.70x → 17.29x) | Multiple-driven; earnings flat |
3 Months | −0.16% | +2.24% (10.43x → 10.66x) | −1.28% (17.52x → 17.29x) | Flat; slight multiple expansion on EV basis |
6 Months | +5.95% | +6.03% (10.06x → 10.66x) | +2.14% (16.93x → 17.29x) | Primarily multiple expansion |
12 Months | +19.15% | +15.08% (9.27x → 10.66x) | +11.05% (15.57x → 17.29x) | Majority multiple expansion; earnings growth contributed ~4% |
Source: Stock performance decomposition data as of July 27, 2026. NTM multiples based on next twelve months consensus. Latest NTM EV/EBITDA: 10.66x; NTM P/E: 17.29x. The 12-month rally has been predominantly multiple-driven (+15% EV/EBITDA expansion), reflecting market re-rating of FE’s transmission-heavy growth profile and data center optionality. At 17.3x NTM P/E, FE trades at a modest premium to the regulated utility peer group average, which is defensible given the above-peer rate base CAGR target of 10% and transmission formula rate exposure.
6. Material News & Developments
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the West Virginia CPCN hearing proceeding in mid-July — regulatory approval of the 1.2 GW CCGT would be a material catalyst that triggers a financial plan update and could add meaningful CapEx upside. The PJM capacity auction clearing at the $325/MW-day cap and the broader data center grid stability incident on July 22 are also highly relevant read-throughs for FE’s transmission investment thesis.
- July 22, 2026 — PJM Grid Disturbance (3+ GW Disconnect, Northern Virginia): A power line failure outside Washington, DC caused >3 GW of data center load to disconnect simultaneously, taking 10+ minutes to stabilize — the longest recovery time for a routine disturbance in recent memory. The event exposed grid fragility from sudden large-load swings and directly supports FE’s advocacy for transmission investment and its opposition to PJM acting as a commodity risk intermediary. FE’s transmission system sits at the center of the PJM footprint, making it a direct beneficiary of any accelerated transmission investment mandated in response.
- July 14, 2026 — PJM Capacity Auction Clears at $325/MW-Day Cap: The 2028–2029 PJM capacity auction cleared at the maximum allowed price (~$325/MW-day), the second consecutive auction at the cap, with PJM again falling short of its reliability requirement. Capacity prices have risen >1,000% since 2024. This directly validates FE management’s long-standing critique of the PJM capacity market construct and strengthens the case for the West Virginia CCGT generation investment. FE has explicitly stated it will not sign contracts requiring commodity risk on generation and energy.
- July 17, 2026 — Duke Energy Carolinas Comprehensive Rate Settlement (NC): DEC reached a comprehensive settlement with NC regulators establishing a 9.8% ROE on a 53% equity capital structure and ~$25.7B rate base, with ~$3.8B in MYRP capital. The settlement reduces DEC’s original rate increase request from ~18% to ~9.5% over two years. Read-through for FE: constructive regulatory outcomes remain achievable even in politically sensitive environments; the 9.8% ROE benchmark is relevant context for FE’s Ohio TYRP filing.
- July 2, 2026 — FE Announces Q2 2026 Earnings Webcast: FirstEnergy confirmed the Q2 2026 earnings call for July 29, 2026. No pre-announcement or guidance revision was issued, consistent with the company’s pattern of reaffirming guidance at the quarterly print.
- June 9, 2026 — Entergy Investor Day (Highly Relevant Read-Through): Entergy disclosed a $67B 5-year capital plan (doubled from two years ago), >8% EPS CAGR through 2030, and a 7–12 GW data center ESA backlog for the next 24 months. Meta’s 5 GW/$50B Louisiana data center project was highlighted. This confirms the scale of hyperscaler demand for utility infrastructure and validates FE’s data center pipeline growth narrative.
- Late March 2026 — Moody’s Raises FE Outlook to Positive: Moody’s raised its outlook on FE’s senior unsecured rating to positive, citing improved credit profile and low-risk regulated T&D operations. This follows S&P’s investment grade upgrade in late 2025. Both upgrades reduce FE’s cost of capital and support the $36B Energize365 financing plan.
- April 28–29, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings (Baseline): Core EPS of $0.72 (+7.5% YoY), in-line with consensus. $1.4B capital deployed (+33% YoY, 90% in formula rate programs). West Virginia data center pipeline grew 50% since February to ~1.8 GW of highly credible projects; ~4 GW of total pipeline in final contract negotiations expected to nearly double contracted demand within Q2. Ohio TYRP pre-filing notice submitted April 22.
7. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Through
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is uniformly constructive on data center load growth, transmission investment, and utility earnings quality — all directly relevant to FE’s Q2 2026 setup. NEE’s Q2 beat and PCG’s reaffirmed guidance confirm that the utility sector is executing well on the AI/data center demand theme. Duke’s NC rate settlement at 9.8% ROE is a constructive regulatory read-through for FE’s Ohio TYRP. Entergy’s Investor Day is the most directly comparable peer signal, confirming the scale and durability of hyperscaler demand.
Note on Scope: Only commentary from the last 60 days (on or after May 28, 2026) that addresses Q2 2026 conditions, forward guidance, or current-quarter themes is included below. Prior-quarter earnings commentary (e.g., Q1 2025 results discussed on Q1 2025 calls) is explicitly excluded.
NextEra Energy (NEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 24, 2026)
Relevance: NEE is the largest US regulated utility and a direct read-through on data center demand, transmission investment, and regulatory outcomes. NEE reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.15 vs. $1.11 consensus (+3.6% beat), with FPL net income of $1.41B (vs. $1.28B prior year). NEER added 3.6 GW of renewables/storage to backlog (total: 35.1 GW). Key read-throughs for FE:
- Data Center Demand Acceleration: FPL updated its large load expectations to 8 GW by 2032 (from 6 GW), with 21 GW of total interest and 12 GW in advanced discussions. FPL expects to announce at least one large load transaction under its tariff by year-end. Each GW of large load is equivalent to ~$2B of CapEx at the same ROE as other FPL investments. Read-through for FE: Validates FE’s 14.9 GW 2035F pipeline and the ~4 GW in final contract negotiations disclosed on the Q1 call. Hyperscaler demand is accelerating, not decelerating.
- FERC Section 206 Show Cause Orders: NEE management stated FERC’s June Section 206 orders “will create a market shift, generating strong demand for matching load with generation.” Read-through for FE: FE has been a vocal advocate for direct bilateral contracting between power plant developers and end-use customers rather than PJM intermediation. FERC action in this direction would validate FE’s policy stance and potentially accelerate West Virginia generation contracting.
- Transmission Investment Execution: NEE Transmission energized a 137-mile, 345 kV line in New Mexico ahead of schedule and on budget in 31 months, and won new MISO 765 kV projects (~$1.6B, 43% stake). Read-through for FE: Confirms that transmission projects are being executed on time and on budget across the industry, supporting FE’s formula rate transmission investment thesis.
- Affordability and Ratepayer Protection: FPL’s typical residential bill is ~30% below the national average, projected to increase only 2% annually through decade-end. NEE signed the White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge. Read-through for FE: FE’s rates are already 20% below in-state peers (T&D component 35% below), positioning it well on affordability. The pledge dynamic is relevant context for FE’s Ohio TYRP and Pennsylvania rate case timing.
PG&E (PCG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22–23, 2026)
Relevance: PCG reported Q2 2026 core EPS of $0.40 vs. $0.36 consensus (+11% beat), driven by higher rates and data center demand. PCG reaffirmed full-year core EPS guidance of $1.64–$1.66 (midpoint +10% YoY) and its $73B 5-year capital plan. Key read-throughs for FE:
- Data Center Pipeline Quality Over Quantity: PCG’s data center pipeline now stands at >12 GW, but management raised the threshold for inclusion in final engineering (requiring a work performance agreement and ~10% financial commitment). PCG expects ~1.8 GW online by 2030. Read-through for FE: FE’s disclosure of ~4 GW in “final contract negotiations” on the Q1 call is the analogous quality filter — investors will want to know how much of that 4 GW has converted to signed contracts with construction agreements in Q2.
- Rate Case Execution and Affordability: PCG’s 2027 GRC is the “lowest filed in over a decade,” with rates projected flat from 2025 to 2027 if fully implemented. PCG targets 0–3% annual customer bill growth. Read-through for FE: FE’s Ohio TYRP proposes <3% annual bill impact, directly aligned with the industry affordability standard. PCG’s success in filing a constructive GRC despite California’s political environment is a positive read-through for FE’s regulatory strategy.
- O&M Discipline: PCG targets 2–4% annual nonfuel O&M reductions and has saved >$40M through sourcing/procurement initiatives in 2026. Read-through for FE: FE has reduced base O&M by >$200M (15%) since 2022, with Q1 2026 base O&M down ~5% YoY. Both companies are demonstrating that O&M discipline is a durable earnings lever, not a one-time item.
- Credit Rating Trajectory: S&P upgraded PCG to one notch below investment grade, citing wildfire risk reduction. Both S&P and Moody’s cite a “durable legislative solution” as the catalyst for further upgrades. Read-through for FE: FE has already achieved investment grade (S&P upgrade late 2025, Moody’s positive outlook March 2026). FE’s credit trajectory is more advanced than PCG’s, which is a relative positive for FE’s cost of capital.
Entergy (ETR) — Investor Day (June 9, 2026)
Relevance: Entergy’s Investor Day is the most directly comparable peer signal for FE’s data center and transmission investment thesis. ETR disclosed a $67B 5-year capital plan (doubled from two years ago), >8% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 (underlying growth rate “double digit”), and a 7–12 GW data center ESA backlog for the next 24 months. Key read-throughs for FE:
- Hyperscaler Demand Scale and Durability: Meta’s 5 GW/$50B Louisiana data center project is the largest single hyperscaler commitment disclosed by any utility. AWS is expanding in Mississippi (Canton → Bridgeland → Vicksburg). ETR’s ESA backlog has “grown by nearly double” since 2024. Read-through for FE: The scale of hyperscaler commitments to ETR validates FE’s West Virginia data center pipeline (1.8 GW highly credible, 6+ GW in dialogue). The 50% pipeline growth since February that FE disclosed on the Q1 call is consistent with the industry-wide acceleration ETR is describing.
- Fair Share Plus Contracting Model: ETR’s hyperscaler contracts require customers to pay incremental costs plus their share of fixed costs (storm, overhead), resulting in “$7B of savings for existing customers” over 15–20-year contract lives. Contracts include significant minimum bills and early termination provisions. Read-through for FE: FE management has similarly emphasized that data center customers must pay their fair share and that FE will not take commodity risk. The ETR model validates FE’s contracting philosophy and suggests the economics are achievable.
- Rate Base Growth Leadership: ETR projects $97B rate base by 2030 (16% CAGR since 2025), which it describes as “the highest rate base growth in the industry.” Read-through for FE: FE’s 10% rate base CAGR target through 2030 is below ETR’s 16%, but FE’s transmission formula rate exposure (75% of CapEx in formula rate programs) provides more earnings certainty per dollar of investment. The comparison highlights that FE’s growth story is more de-risked, if less aggressive.
- EPS Growth Guidance: ETR guided to >8% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 and >8% through at least 2035, with the underlying growth rate described as “double digit.” Read-through for FE: FE’s 6–8% CAGR target (near top end) is more conservative than ETR’s, but FE’s formula rate exposure and lower regulatory risk profile justify a premium multiple relative to ETR’s more aggressive but execution-dependent growth plan.
Duke Energy (DUK) — NC Rate Settlement (July 2 & July 17, 2026)
Relevance: Duke Energy Carolinas reached a comprehensive rate settlement with NC regulators on July 17, 2026, following a partial settlement on July 2. Key terms and read-throughs for FE:
- Allowed ROE of 9.8% on 53% equity capital structure: DEC’s settlement establishes a 9.8% ROE, down from the initial 10.95% request. Rate base of ~$25.7B with ~$3.8B of MYRP capital. Read-through for FE: FE’s consolidated ROE target of 9.5–10% is consistent with the DUK settlement benchmark. The 9.8% outcome in a politically sensitive environment (NC regulators pushed back hard on the original 18% rate increase request) suggests that constructive regulatory outcomes are achievable even under public scrutiny. FE’s Ohio TYRP proposes <3% annual bill impact, which is more conservative than DUK’s original ask.
- Rate Case Delay Provision: DEC agreed to evaluate delaying its next base rate case filing until no earlier than November 2028, contingent on NCUC granting deferral of costs for new generating assets. Read-through for FE: FE’s Ohio TYRP structure (3-year forward-looking plan) is designed to reduce rate case frequency and provide regulatory certainty — the DUK settlement validates this approach as a constructive regulatory tool.
- One-Time Charges Treated as Special Items: The DUK settlement results in ~$40M pre-tax charges in 2026, excluded from adjusted earnings. Read-through for FE: FE similarly excludes investigation-related costs and pension/OPEB items from Core EPS. The industry practice of treating settlement-related charges as special items is well-established and should not affect FE’s Core EPS trajectory.
GE Vernova (GEV) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026)
Relevance: GEV is a key equipment supplier for utility generation and transmission infrastructure. GEV reported Q2 2026 orders of $24.2B (+88% organically), raised full-year revenue guidance to $45.5–46.5B (from $44.5–45.5B), and raised cash flow guidance to $11.5–12.5B (from $6.5–7.5B). Key read-throughs for FE:
- Equipment Demand Surge Validates Power Infrastructure Thesis: GEV’s 88% organic order growth and backlog spike confirm that power equipment demand is accelerating, not decelerating. Read-through for FE: FE management noted on the Q1 call that it is “confident in cost estimates of about $2.5B for the [WV CCGT] plant” despite a “seller’s market for turbines.” GEV’s results confirm the seller’s market dynamic but also confirm that equipment is available for committed projects.
- Data Center Boom Not Slowing: Market commentary noted that GEV results, along with INTC and SMCI, “make clear that the data center boom isn’t slowing one bit.” Read-through for FE: Directly validates FE’s data center pipeline growth narrative and the 50% increase in the West Virginia pipeline since February.
8. Insider Transaction Activity
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified for FE in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28, 2026 through July 28, 2026). The absence of insider selling ahead of earnings is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying means insiders are not providing a strong directional signal either way.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | No open-market insider transactions (Form 4 codes P/S) identified for FE in the April 28 – July 28, 2026 window per SEC Form 4 database query. |
Source: SEC Form 4 database query for FE, transaction codes P (open-market purchase) and S (open-market sale), filing date range April 28, 2026 – July 28, 2026. No transactions returned. Note: routine equity compensation grants (code A) and tax withholding dispositions are excluded per methodology.
9. Risks & Key Questions for the Call
Key Risks
- West Virginia CPCN Denial or Delay: Hearings were scheduled for mid-July; if the PSC denies or significantly delays the 1.2 GW CCGT certificate, FE would need to revise its long-term financial plan. The project represents ~$2.5B of CapEx and is the anchor for the West Virginia data center generation strategy. Management has indicated up to 35% equity funding if AFUDC cash recovery is approved — a denial would remove this equity need but also remove the earnings upside.
- Ohio TYRP Regulatory Risk: The formal TYRP filing was made in May 2026, with new rates targeted for mid-2027. If the PUCO rejects the forward-looking structure or significantly reduces the proposed ~$800M/year investment level, it would reduce FE’s Ohio distribution earnings growth trajectory. The <3% annual bill impact proposal is designed to be politically defensible, but Ohio’s regulatory history has been contentious.
- PJM Capacity Market Uncertainty: FE has explicitly stated it will not sign contracts requiring commodity risk on generation and energy under PJM’s proposed Phase 2 backstop procurement. If PJM’s structure evolves in a way that forces utilities to take commodity risk, FE’s West Virginia generation strategy could be complicated. The July 22 grid disturbance and the $325/MW-day capacity auction cap both highlight the urgency of resolution.
- Data Center Pipeline Conversion Risk: FE disclosed ~4 GW in “final contract negotiations” on the Q1 call, expected to convert within Q2. If this conversion has not occurred or has been delayed, it would be a negative surprise and could raise questions about the durability of the pipeline. The Q2 call will be the first opportunity to update the contracted demand figure.
- Interest Rate and Financing Cost Sensitivity: FE’s $36B 5-year CapEx plan requires significant ongoing debt financing. The 2026 plan includes $1.7B in remaining subsidiary debt offerings. Rising interest rates or credit spread widening would increase financing costs and pressure Core EPS, particularly in the Corporate/Other segment where higher interest expense was already cited as a Q1 headwind.
- Pennsylvania and New Jersey Rate Case Timing: Management has been “very, very thoughtful” about New Jersey rate case timing given Governor’s executive orders. Pennsylvania affordability concerns and Governor Shapiro’s active engagement on energy costs create political risk around rate case outcomes. Any delay or adverse outcome in these jurisdictions would reduce the distribution earnings growth trajectory.
Key Questions for Management on the Q2 2026 Call
- Data Center Pipeline Conversion: Of the ~4 GW in final contract negotiations disclosed on the Q1 call, how much has converted to signed contracts with construction agreements in Q2? What is the updated contracted demand figure, and has the West Virginia pipeline continued to grow beyond the 1.8 GW of highly credible projects?
- West Virginia CPCN Outcome: What is the status of the CPCN hearing process? Has the PSC issued any preliminary signals? When do you expect a final decision, and what is the timeline for updating the financial plan following approval?
- Ohio TYRP Progress: Has the formal TYRP filing been made as planned in May? What is the PUCO’s initial response, and are there any indications of the timeline for a decision? Has the proposed ~$800M/year investment level been accepted as filed?
- H2 2026 Earnings Cadence: Can you provide more color on the H2 earnings ramp? Q2 consensus of ~$0.51 implies H2 needs to deliver ~$1.55 to hit the $2.72 midpoint. What are the key drivers of the H2 acceleration — is it primarily rate case timing, formula rate step-ups, or O&M phasing?
- PJM Backstop Procurement and Commodity Risk: Has there been any update from FERC or PJM on the Phase 2 backstop procurement structure? Has FE’s position on not taking commodity risk changed? How does the July 22 grid disturbance affect your advocacy strategy?
- CapEx Upside and Financial Plan Update: The current $36B 5-year plan was set before the West Virginia CPCN filing and before the data center pipeline acceleration. When should investors expect a financial plan update that incorporates the WV generation project and any incremental transmission awards from the 2026 PJM planning window?
- Equity Issuance and Balance Sheet: The 2026 plan includes a “modest amount of common equity” (~1% of market cap annually). Has the pace of equity issuance changed given the WV CPCN process? What is the current ATM balance and remaining 2026 equity need?
Appendix: Key Data Sources & Citations
- Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals — Core EPS (Operating): https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS
- Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals — Transmission Revenue: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RTCheckpending
- Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals — Property Additions / CapEx: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/CF
- Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals — Industrial Volume: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RD
- FE Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 28, 2026): documents/FE/Earnings Release/2026Q1/raw_document.pdf
- FE Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation (April 28, 2026): documents/FE/Earnings Presentation/2026Q1/raw_document.pdf
- FE Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 29, 2026): documents/FE/transcript/earnings/2026Q1/raw_document.txt
- NEE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 24, 2026): documents/NEE/transcript/earnings/2026Q2/raw_document.txt
- PCG Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 23, 2026): documents/PCG/transcript/earnings/2026Q2/raw_document.txt
- ETR Investor Day Transcript (June 9, 2026): documents/ETR/transcript/non-earnings/Investor Day/2026-06-09/raw_document.txt
- DUK 8-K — NC Rate Settlement (July 2, 2026): documents/DUK/8K/000110465926080476/8K/fc6ab572e5dad8de823887dac067313a/raw_document.txt
- DUK 8-K — Comprehensive Rate Settlement (July 17, 2026): documents/DUK/8K/000110465926084653/8K/ab3202beac4d5cef5c4e0d22a0c2e023/raw_document.txt
- Stock Price Data (FE, XLU, SPY): Yahoo Finance, April 28 – July 28, 2026. Dataset ID: dfad831c57cf4dc982f37c7fa1d9769d
- Stock Performance Decomposition: Implied platform, snapshot July 27, 2026. NTM multiples: EV/EBITDA 10.66x, P/E 17.29x
- Earnings Revision Momentum Data: Implied platform, Q2 2026 Core EPS monthly snapshots August 2025 – July 2026
- GEV Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026): SEC 8-K and news digest sources
- PJM Capacity Auction Results (July 14, 2026): Reuters / SEC 8-K filings (VST, CEG, NRG)
- PJM Grid Disturbance (July 22, 2026): Reuters / TechCrunch news digest