FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

FirstEnergy Corp.

Ticker

NYSE: FE

Earnings Date

July 29, 2026 — 9:00 AM ET

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Prepared

July 28, 2026

Sector ETF Benchmark

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive but not a high bar — consensus Core EPS of ~$0.51 sits below the prior-year Q2 actual of $0.56, and the biggest swing factor is whether management can confirm that the ~4 GW of data center pipeline in final contract negotiations has converted to contracted demand, which would nearly double contracted load and materially de-risk the long-term CapEx story.

Heading into Q2 2026, FirstEnergy's bar is relatively low: consensus Core EPS of ~$0.51 is below the $0.56 reported in Q2 2025, reflecting the company's own guidance that most 2026 earnings growth materializes in the second half of the year. Management reaffirmed full-year Core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82/share and the long-term CAGR target near the top end of 6–8% on the Q1 2026 call, and tone has been consistently confident — Moody's raised its outlook to positive in late March, and the company's $1.4B Q1 capital deployment (up 33% YoY) demonstrates execution. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (from ~$0.57 to ~$0.51 for Q2), likely reflecting seasonal earnings weighting rather than fundamental deterioration, and the full-year consensus of ~$2.78 sits comfortably within guidance. The stock has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 earnings date (FE ~$49.32 vs. ~$49.58 at close on April 28), underperforming XLU modestly, suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst rather than pricing in a beat. The single biggest wildcard is the West Virginia data center pipeline and CPCN hearing outcome: hearings for the 1.2 GW CCGT were scheduled for mid-July, and any regulatory approval signal or incremental contracted demand announcement could be the catalyst that re-rates the stock toward the upper end of its peer multiple range.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a low bar on Core EPS (below prior-year Q2 actual), consistent with management’s own guidance that H2 carries the bulk of 2026 growth. Transmission revenue and CapEx deployment are the bigger swing factors — both have been running ahead of prior-year pace and any acceleration would be the more meaningful read-through for the long-term thesis.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter)

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

FY 2026 Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint

Core EPS — Operating (Non-GAAP) ($)

$0.72

$0.52

$0.51

−2.0%

$2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 midpoint)

~+2.0% above midpoint (FY consensus $2.78 vs. $2.72)

Transmission Revenue ($M)

$516M

$456M

$512M

+12.3%

N/A — no quarterly guidance

N/A

Total Revenue ($M)

$4,202M

N/A — not in VA for Q2 2025

N/A — not in VA

N/A

N/A

N/A

Property Additions / CapEx ($M)

$1,255M

$1,218M

$1,457M

+19.6%

$6.0B full-year plan

N/A — quarterly cadence not guided

Industrial Volume — Regulated Distribution (GWh)

12,899 GWh

12,969 GWh

N/A — not in VA for Q2 2026

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sources: Core EPS — Operating: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS). Transmission Revenue: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RTCheckpending). Property Additions: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/CF). Industrial Volume: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RD). Q1 2026 Total Revenue from FE Q1 2026 Earnings Release. FY 2026 guidance from FE Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 29, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Core EPS — Operating)

Quarter

Reported Core EPS ($)

Consensus at Time ($)

Surprise %

Result

Q2 2024

$0.56

$0.55

+2.3%

Beat

Q3 2024

$0.76

N/A — VA consensus not available at time of print

N/A

N/A

Q4 2024

$0.87

N/A — VA consensus not available at time of print

N/A

N/A

Q1 2025

$0.67

$0.60

+11.5%

Beat

Q2 2025

$0.52

$0.49

+7.0%

Beat

Q3 2025

$0.83

$0.78

+7.0%

Beat

Q4 2025

$0.53

$0.61

−13.1%

Miss

Q1 2026

$0.72

$0.73

−1.4%

In-Line

Pattern: FE has beaten Core EPS consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters where data is available, with the Q4 2025 miss being the notable exception (driven by seasonal earnings weighting and higher financing costs). The Q1 2026 print was essentially in-line. The consistent beat pattern in Q2 and Q3 historically suggests the bar for Q2 2026 may be beatable, though the Q4 2025 miss is a reminder that the company’s H2-weighted earnings profile can create volatility in lighter quarters.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS). Consensus figures represent latest available VA consensus at time of reporting where available.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call — management reaffirmed the $2.62–$2.82 full-year Core EPS range and the 6–8% long-term CAGR target near the top end. Tone is constructive and confident, with the West Virginia CPCN hearing (mid-July) and Ohio TYRP filing (May 2026) as the two most significant post-earnings developments to watch.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 29, 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

FY 2026 Core EPS

$2.62–$2.82/share ($2.72 midpoint)

Unchanged

$2.78

Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; consensus sits ~2% above midpoint, within range

Long-Term Core EPS CAGR (2026–2030)

Near top end of 6–8% range, off $2.72 midpoint

Unchanged

N/A — not modeled by VA

Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; consistent with prior guidance

FY 2026 Capital Investment Plan

$6.0 billion

Unchanged

$5.87B (VA FY consensus)

Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call; Q1 deployment of $1.4B (+33% YoY) tracking ahead of pace

5-Year CapEx Plan (2026–2030)

$36 billion (Energize365)

Unchanged

N/A

Represents ~30% increase vs. prior 5-year plan; 10% rate base CAGR target through 2030

Ohio TYRP Filing

Pre-filing notice April 22; formal filing May 2026; ~$800M/yr investment; <3% annual bill impact; rates effective mid-2027

Formal filing made in May 2026 per plan

N/A

On track; constructive regulatory posture; new forward-looking legislation enables TYRP structure

West Virginia CPCN (1.2 GW CCGT)

Hearings mid-July; approval expected 2H 2026 (likely early Q4); ~$2.5B project cost; online 2031

Hearings proceeded as scheduled in mid-July

N/A

Approval outcome is key catalyst; up to 35% equity-funded if AFUDC cash recovery approved

Consolidated ROE Target

9.5–10% target; Q1 2026 trailing 12-month ROE: 9.8%

Unchanged

N/A

Tracking within target range; formula rate investments driving improvement

Source: FE Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 29, 2026); FE Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 28, 2026); FE Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation (April 28, 2026). Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data for FY 2026 consensus figures.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 Core EPS estimates have drifted ~9% lower since the Q1 2026 earnings print (from ~$0.57 to ~$0.51), consistent with management’s own commentary that H2 carries the bulk of 2026 growth — this is a seasonal pattern, not a fundamental cut. Full-year estimates are essentially flat since the Q1 print, suggesting the street is not revising the annual thesis, just re-phasing the quarterly cadence.

KPI & Period

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 5, 2026)

Current Consensus (July 28, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Core EPS — Q2 2026

$0.567

$0.515

−9.2%

No quarterly guidance provided

No quarterly guidance provided

N/A

N/A

Core EPS — FY 2026

$2.809

$2.775

−1.2%

$2.62–$2.82 ($2.72 midpoint)

$2.62–$2.82 (unchanged)

Unchanged

+2.0% above midpoint

Transmission Revenue — Q2 2026 ($M)

$496M

$512M

+3.2%

No quarterly guidance

No quarterly guidance

N/A

N/A

Transmission Revenue — FY 2026 ($M)

$2,031M

$2,019M

−0.6%

No annual guidance

No annual guidance

N/A

N/A

Property Additions / CapEx — Q2 2026 ($M)

$1,396M

$1,457M

+4.4%

$6.0B full-year

$6.0B full-year (unchanged)

Unchanged

N/A — quarterly cadence not guided

Property Additions / CapEx — FY 2026 ($M)

$6,097M

$5,875M

−3.6%

$6.0B

$6.0B (unchanged)

Unchanged

−2.1% below guidance

Commentary: The Q2 Core EPS estimate drift of ~9% lower since the Q1 print is entirely consistent with management’s explicit guidance that “most of the remaining earnings growth compared to 2025 materializes in the second half of the year.” The full-year estimate is essentially flat (−1.2%), confirming the street is re-phasing rather than cutting. Transmission revenue estimates for Q2 have actually been revised higher (+3.2%) since the Q1 print, reflecting continued formula rate investment momentum — this is the more important signal for the long-term thesis. CapEx consensus for FY 2026 sits ~3.6% below the $6.0B guidance, suggesting modest upside risk to deployment if the West Virginia CPCN is approved and contract signings accelerate.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Core EPS: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/IS. Transmission Revenue: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/RTCheckpending. Property Additions: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/FE_US/NMV/CF. As-of-date baseline: May 5, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: FE has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 2026 earnings date, down ~0.5% vs. the April 28 close of $49.58, while XLU is down ~1.2% and the S&P 500 is up ~3.9% over the same period. The stock’s underperformance vs. the broader market reflects the defensive utility rotation dynamic — as risk appetite returned post-tariff uncertainty, capital rotated out of utilities. FE’s 12-month performance (+19.2%) has been driven primarily by multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from 9.27x to 10.66x, +15%), with earnings growth contributing the remainder.

FE vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026)

Date

FE (Indexed)

XLU (Indexed)

SPY (Indexed)

Apr 28, 2026 (Base)

100.0

100.0

100.0

May 8, 2026

89.4

96.7

103.6

May 22, 2026

93.4

98.1

104.8

Jun 12, 2026

94.8

96.3

104.2

Jun 26, 2026

97.8

99.9

102.4

Jul 14, 2026

99.3

98.8

105.6

Jul 28, 2026 (Latest)

99.5

98.8

103.9

Note: All three series indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 close (FE: $49.58, XLU: $46.25, SPY: $711.69). Latest prices as of July 28, 2026 close (FE: $49.32, XLU: $45.68, SPY: $739.09). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Valuation Context

Horizon

FE Price Change

NTM EV/EBITDA Change

NTM P/E Change

Commentary

1 Month

+2.75%

+3.65% (9.27x → 10.29x)

+3.55% (16.70x → 17.29x)

Multiple-driven; earnings flat

3 Months

−0.16%

+2.24% (10.43x → 10.66x)

−1.28% (17.52x → 17.29x)

Flat; slight multiple expansion on EV basis

6 Months

+5.95%

+6.03% (10.06x → 10.66x)

+2.14% (16.93x → 17.29x)

Primarily multiple expansion

12 Months

+19.15%

+15.08% (9.27x → 10.66x)

+11.05% (15.57x → 17.29x)

Majority multiple expansion; earnings growth contributed ~4%

Source: Stock performance decomposition data as of July 27, 2026. NTM multiples based on next twelve months consensus. Latest NTM EV/EBITDA: 10.66x; NTM P/E: 17.29x. The 12-month rally has been predominantly multiple-driven (+15% EV/EBITDA expansion), reflecting market re-rating of FE’s transmission-heavy growth profile and data center optionality. At 17.3x NTM P/E, FE trades at a modest premium to the regulated utility peer group average, which is defensible given the above-peer rate base CAGR target of 10% and transmission formula rate exposure.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the West Virginia CPCN hearing proceeding in mid-July — regulatory approval of the 1.2 GW CCGT would be a material catalyst that triggers a financial plan update and could add meaningful CapEx upside. The PJM capacity auction clearing at the $325/MW-day cap and the broader data center grid stability incident on July 22 are also highly relevant read-throughs for FE’s transmission investment thesis.

7. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is uniformly constructive on data center load growth, transmission investment, and utility earnings quality — all directly relevant to FE’s Q2 2026 setup. NEE’s Q2 beat and PCG’s reaffirmed guidance confirm that the utility sector is executing well on the AI/data center demand theme. Duke’s NC rate settlement at 9.8% ROE is a constructive regulatory read-through for FE’s Ohio TYRP. Entergy’s Investor Day is the most directly comparable peer signal, confirming the scale and durability of hyperscaler demand.

Note on Scope: Only commentary from the last 60 days (on or after May 28, 2026) that addresses Q2 2026 conditions, forward guidance, or current-quarter themes is included below. Prior-quarter earnings commentary (e.g., Q1 2025 results discussed on Q1 2025 calls) is explicitly excluded.

NextEra Energy (NEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 24, 2026)

Relevance: NEE is the largest US regulated utility and a direct read-through on data center demand, transmission investment, and regulatory outcomes. NEE reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.15 vs. $1.11 consensus (+3.6% beat), with FPL net income of $1.41B (vs. $1.28B prior year). NEER added 3.6 GW of renewables/storage to backlog (total: 35.1 GW). Key read-throughs for FE:

PG&E (PCG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22–23, 2026)

Relevance: PCG reported Q2 2026 core EPS of $0.40 vs. $0.36 consensus (+11% beat), driven by higher rates and data center demand. PCG reaffirmed full-year core EPS guidance of $1.64–$1.66 (midpoint +10% YoY) and its $73B 5-year capital plan. Key read-throughs for FE:

Entergy (ETR) — Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Relevance: Entergy’s Investor Day is the most directly comparable peer signal for FE’s data center and transmission investment thesis. ETR disclosed a $67B 5-year capital plan (doubled from two years ago), >8% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 (underlying growth rate “double digit”), and a 7–12 GW data center ESA backlog for the next 24 months. Key read-throughs for FE:

Duke Energy (DUK) — NC Rate Settlement (July 2 & July 17, 2026)

Relevance: Duke Energy Carolinas reached a comprehensive rate settlement with NC regulators on July 17, 2026, following a partial settlement on July 2. Key terms and read-throughs for FE:

GE Vernova (GEV) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026)

Relevance: GEV is a key equipment supplier for utility generation and transmission infrastructure. GEV reported Q2 2026 orders of $24.2B (+88% organically), raised full-year revenue guidance to $45.5–46.5B (from $44.5–45.5B), and raised cash flow guidance to $11.5–12.5B (from $6.5–7.5B). Key read-throughs for FE:

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified for FE in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28, 2026 through July 28, 2026). The absence of insider selling ahead of earnings is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying means insiders are not providing a strong directional signal either way.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Value

Date

Note

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

No open-market insider transactions (Form 4 codes P/S) identified for FE in the April 28 – July 28, 2026 window per SEC Form 4 database query.

Source: SEC Form 4 database query for FE, transaction codes P (open-market purchase) and S (open-market sale), filing date range April 28, 2026 – July 28, 2026. No transactions returned. Note: routine equity compensation grants (code A) and tax withholding dispositions are excluded per methodology.

9. Risks & Key Questions for the Call

Key Risks

Key Questions for Management on the Q2 2026 Call

  1. Data Center Pipeline Conversion: Of the ~4 GW in final contract negotiations disclosed on the Q1 call, how much has converted to signed contracts with construction agreements in Q2? What is the updated contracted demand figure, and has the West Virginia pipeline continued to grow beyond the 1.8 GW of highly credible projects?
  2. West Virginia CPCN Outcome: What is the status of the CPCN hearing process? Has the PSC issued any preliminary signals? When do you expect a final decision, and what is the timeline for updating the financial plan following approval?
  3. Ohio TYRP Progress: Has the formal TYRP filing been made as planned in May? What is the PUCO’s initial response, and are there any indications of the timeline for a decision? Has the proposed ~$800M/year investment level been accepted as filed?
  4. H2 2026 Earnings Cadence: Can you provide more color on the H2 earnings ramp? Q2 consensus of ~$0.51 implies H2 needs to deliver ~$1.55 to hit the $2.72 midpoint. What are the key drivers of the H2 acceleration — is it primarily rate case timing, formula rate step-ups, or O&M phasing?
  5. PJM Backstop Procurement and Commodity Risk: Has there been any update from FERC or PJM on the Phase 2 backstop procurement structure? Has FE’s position on not taking commodity risk changed? How does the July 22 grid disturbance affect your advocacy strategy?
  6. CapEx Upside and Financial Plan Update: The current $36B 5-year plan was set before the West Virginia CPCN filing and before the data center pipeline acceleration. When should investors expect a financial plan update that incorporates the WV generation project and any incremental transmission awards from the 2026 PJM planning window?
  7. Equity Issuance and Balance Sheet: The 2026 plan includes a “modest amount of common equity” (~1% of market cap annually). Has the pace of equity issuance changed given the WV CPCN process? What is the current ATM balance and remaining 2026 equity need?

Appendix: Key Data Sources & Citations