| FICO |
Report |
Revenue (Q3 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$688M vs. cons ~$679M |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS (Q3 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$12.45 vs. cons ~$12.03 |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Report |
Scores segment revenue (Q3 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$495M vs. cons ~$478M |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
FY26 revenue guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.50B vs. cons ~$2.47B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$41.5 vs. cons ~$40.9 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
VantageScore paid mortgage share commentary |
UNCHANGED |
mgmt ~2% vs. bear-case ~10% share |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
DLP go-live / FHFA reseller approval timing |
UNKNOWN |
pred 3 of 5 resellers signed vs. 0 firm go-live dates |
LOW |
| FICO |
Guide |
Q3 buyback executed |
BETTER |
pred ~$450M vs. Q2 record $605M |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| FICO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
Beat-and-raise is the base case and lifts FY26 EPS revisions modestly, supporting an initial pop, but FICO ran ~+11% idiosyncratically in the week into the print (7/23 $1,206 to 7/28 $1,336), so much of the good news is priced. With the July-1 10T data now public and the VantageScore/DLP overhang unresolved, out-period math (only incremental raise vs. a stretched entry) argues for the initial move fading back toward the pre-run range rather than compounding; heavy sell-the-news risk if guidance is merely reiterated. |
LOW |