| FICO |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$698M vs. cons $679.31M |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$12.55 vs. cons $12.02 |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Report |
Scores Segment Revenue (mortgage-driven) |
BEAT |
pred ~$465M vs. cons ~$440M |
LOW |
| FICO |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.52B vs. cons/prior guide $2.45B (FY2026, ending Sep-2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$41.50 vs. cons/prior guide $40.45 (FY2026, ending Sep-2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Guide |
VantageScore Paid Market Share / Competitive Share-Loss Commentary |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~2% VantageScore share, no incremental FICO share loss vs. prior stated ~2% (FY2026 outlook) |
LOW |
| FICO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FICO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.0% (FADE) |
A likely beat-and-raise (Scores/mortgage pricing strength, Platform ARR momentum) should drive an initial positive pop, but the raise is expected to be modest relative to the magnitude of Q2's beat and the stock's already-large recovery off April lows, meaning much of the good news is pre-positioned. Out-period math is a headwind: full-year guidance implies a meaningfully lower H2 run-rate than Q2's actual growth, so even with a Q3 beat, analysts may not extrapolate the same growth rate into Q4/FY2027, capping upward EPS revisions. Persistent overhangs — Hawley/FTC scrutiny, FHFA/GSE timeline uncertainty on 10T adoption, and dual-pull 'gaming' dilution risk — provide recurring headline catalysts for profit-taking within the week, causing the initial pop to partially fade rather than fully follow through. |
LOW |