FSLR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
FSLR Report Adjusted EPS (diluted) BEAT pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.74 LOW
FSLR Report Net sales (revenue) IN-LINE pred ~$1.06B vs. cons $1.06B MEDIUM
FSLR Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$480M vs. cons ~$455M LOW
FSLR Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $2.6-2.8B (mid ~$2.7B) vs. cons ~$2.70B (FY2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Guide FY2026 Net sales guide UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $4.9-5.2B (mid ~$5.05B) vs. cons ~$5.15B (FY2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Guide Net bookings / contracted backlog LOWER pred backlog ~46-48 GW vs. 47.9 GW prior; weak net bookings vs. cons ~flat (as of Q2 2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% LOW
FSLR Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Washed-out positioning (stock -36% from June peak, 'worst chart', already-cut FY EPS from ~$22 to ~$17.5) plus a likely in-line/slight-beat quarter and reaffirmed FY guide should spark a modest relief pop on day 1. But the reaffirmation keeps an aggressive H2-loaded ramp intact (~$1.6-1.8B of the $2.6-2.8B EBITDA still due in H2), and the out-period math plus soft net bookings/OBBBA-FEOC demand overhang, Section 232 uncertainty and strong negative momentum pull estimates and price back down, fading most of the initial gain. LOW