I'll research FSLR thoroughly before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent earnings materials, filings, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and gather more context.I have the Q1 2026 release with full financials and guidance. (Note: the transcript file was mislabeled/mismatched, so I'll rely on the release and other sources.) Let me gather recent news, stock performance, and sector context.Let me get the Q1 10-Q for backlog/bookings details and recent policy/sector news that drove the stock's volatility.Let me read a few FSLR-specific news items and the 10-Q MD&A for policy/booking context.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Report date: Thursday, July 30, 2026 (after close) | Event: 2026 Q2 Earnings Call
First Solar goes into this print in an unusual spot — its operating results have been strong, but the stock has been a wrecking ball since early summer. FSLR closed at ~$203 on July 29, down roughly 22% year-to-date (vs. the S&P 500 up ~9–10% and the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) up ~11%). More striking is the round trip: shares rode a May clean-tech rally to a peak of ~$318 on June 3, then gave back roughly 36% in about eight weeks.
Sentiment is bifurcated: - On July 7, Deutsche Bank upgraded FSLR to Buy (PT raised to $272 from $245), calling it "fundamentally strong," citing its ~$2.1B net cash and its status as the only U.S.-based thin-film manufacturer, and arguing shares should re-rate once Washington clarifies its Section 232 polysilicon probe. The stock fell anyway that day. - On July 20, Jim Cramer called it "one of the worst charts I've ever seen." - The analyst community is still net-constructive: of 37 firms, 23 rate it Buy/Overweight, 11 Hold, 2 Underweight, and 1 Sell (KeyBanc).
The gap between the fundamentals and the tape is the central tension of this quarter. The business is executing; the market is trading it on policy and macro headline risk.
FSLR gave an explicit Q2 framework alongside its Q1 report (April 30). For Q2 2026, management guided to:
| Metric | Q2 2026 guide | Q1 2026 actual (context) |
|---|---|---|
| Module sales (volume) | 3.4 – 4.0 GW | 3.8 GW sold / 4.3 GW produced |
| Section 45X tax credits | $330M – $400M | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $400M – $500M | $520M |
Note the sequential step-down implied in EBITDA (Q1 was $520M, above the top of its own preview range). That's not deterioration — it reflects the timing of 45X credits and shipment cadence — but investors should be ready for a lower headline number and focus on the full-year trajectory.
Full-year 2026 guidance (reaffirmed at Q1) — the key benchmark for whether Q2 keeps FY intact: - Volume sold: 17.0 – 18.2 GW - Net sales: $4.9 – $5.2B - Gross profit: $2.4 – $2.6B - Operating expenses: $610 – $635M - Adjusted EBITDA: $2.6 – $2.8B - Capex: $0.8 – $1.0B - Year-end net cash: $1.7 – $2.3B - Assumes $2.10 – $2.19B of Section 45X credits, underutilization of $115–155M, and production start-up of $110–120M.
The math makes the year heavily back-half weighted: Q1 ($520M) plus the Q2 midpoint (~$450M) leaves roughly $1.6–1.8B of Adjusted EBITDA to be delivered in H2 to hit the range. Any wobble in reaffirming full-year guidance would be read harshly given that setup.
Commerce launched a Section 232 national-security probe into polysilicon and its derivatives on July 1, 2025. This matters two ways: it could raise costs/barriers for crystalline-silicon competitors (a positive for CdTe-based First Solar), and — per Deutsche Bank — FSLR has "paused" onshoring/offshoring capital decisions pending the outcome. A clarification could unlock those decisions and, in the bull case, re-rate the stock. Listen for management's tone on timing and any capacity implications.
Section 45X is the single biggest swing factor in FSLR's earnings — the company believes it qualifies for roughly 17 cents/watt on U.S.-made modules, and 45X drove much of Q1's margin (a higher 45X mix cut Q1 cost of sales by ~$118M). The credit runs through 2032 with phase-down beginning 2030. Watch two things: - Cash monetization: FSLR sold $699.7M of 2025 credits for $668.2M (a discount that it treats like a financing cost), and collected Treasury payments in early 2026. Cash conversion of credits is a recurring liquidity lever. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (H.R.1, signed July 4, 2025): it accelerates termination of the solar ITC/PTC and — critically — imposes foreign-entity-of-concern (FEOC) restrictions that limit credits for products with Chinese supply-chain ties. This is a double-edged sword: it's a competitive moat for First Solar's China-free supply chain, but it pressures aggregate U.S. solar demand. Any color on bookings/demand post-OBBBA is important.
Backlog stood at 47.9 GW / $14.4B (through 2030) as of March 31. Because OBBBA is reshaping the demand curve, the market will scrutinize net bookings this quarter and whether backlog is growing or being eroded by cancellations/renegotiations. Two watch items: - FSLR's contracts carry ~$0.6B of potential upside from technology/energy price adjustments (mostly 2027–28), plus adjusters tied to domestic-content, tariffs and commodities. - Counterparty risk is real: FSLR sued BP Solar/Lightsource in September 2025 over unpaid module obligations, a reminder that backlog can be renegotiated.
First Solar enters Q2 with a fundamentally sound story — record Q1 revenue, ~46%+ gross margins, a strong balance sheet (~$2.4B gross / ~$2.0B net cash), a China-free supply chain that policy increasingly favors, and a multi-year contracted backlog — yet a stock that has fallen ~36% from its June peak on policy uncertainty and clean-energy de-rating.
The Q2 print itself will likely show a sequentially lower EBITDA (guided $400–500M) that is optically weaker but expected. The real signals to trade on are: 1. Is full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed? (H2 is heavily loaded, so any hedging is a red flag.) 2. What's the tone on Section 232 polysilicon and the paused capacity decisions? 3. Net bookings / backlog direction in the post-OBBBA demand environment. 4. Any update on IEEPA tariff-refund recovery (upside not in numbers) and on Series 7 quality costs.
For a stock this beaten up, expectations are low and positioning is washed out — which raises the odds that a clean guidance reaffirmation plus constructive policy commentary could be the catalyst bulls (and Deutsche Bank) are waiting for. Conversely, a full-year trim or softer bookings would validate the bearish chart narrative.
Note: The earnings-call transcript on file for FSLR's 2026 Q1 event was mislabeled (it contained a different company's call), so this preview draws on First Solar's Q1 2026 earnings release, its Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, market pricing, and recent news coverage rather than management's spoken Q1 remarks.