FSLR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
FSLR Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$530M vs. cons ~$455M (implied midpoint of $400-500M co. guide) MEDIUM
FSLR Report Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.05 vs. cons ~$2.80 MEDIUM
FSLR Report Q2 2026 Net Sales/Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.07B vs. cons ~$1.06B MEDIUM
FSLR Guide FY2026 Net Sales Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$5.05B (reiterate $4.9-5.2B range) vs. cons $5.1B (FY2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.7B (reiterate $2.6-2.8B range) vs. cons ~$2.68B (FY2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Guide Contracted Backlog (GW/$B) BETTER guide ~49GW/$14.7B vs. prior-quarter base 47.9GW/$14.4B (as of Q2 2026) LOW
FSLR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% LOW
FSLR Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) FSLR has beaten its own EBITDA guide range in each of the last several quarters and enters this print heavily oversold (down ~36% from the June high) with sell-side targets far above the current price, setting up a likely relief bounce on a Q2 beat-and-reiterate. But follow-through is unlikely: the Section 232 polysilicon ruling remains unresolved into early August and becomes the next binary catalyst, the securities litigation overhang (lead-plaintiff deadline Aug 24) keeps a lid on re-rating, and OBBBA/FEOC sourcing ambiguity plus heavy reliance on 45X credits (~75% of gross margin per Bernstein's bear case) make analysts cautious about raising FY27 out-year estimates even after an in-line-to-better Q2, so early gains should fade as the market re-focuses on unresolved policy risk and a technically damaged chart. LOW