{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$530M vs. cons ~$455M (implied midpoint of $400-500M co. guide)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.05 vs. cons ~$2.80",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Net Sales/Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.07B vs. cons ~$1.06B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Sales Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.05B (reiterate $4.9-5.2B range) vs. cons $5.1B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.7B (reiterate $2.6-2.8B range) vs. cons ~$2.68B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Contracted Backlog (GW/$B)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~49GW/$14.7B vs. prior-quarter base 47.9GW/$14.4B (as of Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FSLR has beaten its own EBITDA guide range in each of the last several quarters and enters this print heavily oversold (down ~36% from the June high) with sell-side targets far above the current price, setting up a likely relief bounce on a Q2 beat-and-reiterate. But follow-through is unlikely: the Section 232 polysilicon ruling remains unresolved into early August and becomes the next binary catalyst, the securities litigation overhang (lead-plaintiff deadline Aug 24) keeps a lid on re-rating, and OBBBA/FEOC sourcing ambiguity plus heavy reliance on 45X credits (~75% of gross margin per Bernstein's bear case) make analysts cautious about raising FY27 out-year estimates even after an in-line-to-better Q2, so early gains should fade as the market re-focuses on unresolved policy risk and a technically damaged chart.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}