FSLR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
FSLR Report Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$470M vs. cons $455M MEDIUM
FSLR Report Q2 2026 net sales MISS pred ~$1.03B vs. cons $1.06B MEDIUM
FSLR Report Q2 2026 diluted EPS MISS pred ~$2.78 vs. cons $2.87 LOW
FSLR Guide FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.70B vs. cons $2.72B (FY2026) HIGH
FSLR Guide FY2026 net sales guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$5.05B vs. cons $5.06B (FY2026) HIGH
FSLR Guide Net booking volume commentary LOWER guide/commentary ~1.2GW vs. cons 2.0GW (Q2 2026) MEDIUM
FSLR Guide FY2026 volume sold guidance UNCHANGED guide ~17.6GW vs. cons 17.7GW (FY2026) HIGH
FSLR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.5% MEDIUM
FSLR Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest adjusted EBITDA beat is likely outweighed by weak replacement bookings, unresolved Section 232 timing, and unchanged annual guidance requiring roughly $1.71B of second-half adjusted EBITDA versus approximately $0.99B in the first half; the back-end-loaded out-period math limits upward revisions and supports continued estimate and multiple pressure. MEDIUM