FSLR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
FSLR Report Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$460M vs. cons $477M MEDIUM
FSLR Report Total Shipments (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~3,750 MW vs. cons 3,791 MW MEDIUM
FSLR Report 45X IRA Credits (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$375M vs. cons $408M MEDIUM
FSLR Guide Volume Sold (Q3 2026) LOWER guide ~5.0 GW vs. cons ~5.4 GW MEDIUM
FSLR Guide Adj. EBITDA (Q3 2026) LOWER guide ~$550M vs. cons ~$620M MEDIUM
FSLR Guide Net Sales FY 2026 UNCHANGED guide $4.9B-$5.2B reaffirmed vs. cons $5.07B HIGH
FSLR Guide Adj. EBITDA FY 2026 UNCHANGED guide $2.6B-$2.8B reaffirmed vs. cons $2.64B HIGH
FSLR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.0% MEDIUM
FSLR Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.0% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — estimate cuts on Q3 guide drag stock lower over 3-4 days; Section 232 optionality provides a floor MEDIUM