Fortinet (FTNT) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

Fortinet, Inc.

Ticker

FTNT (Nasdaq)

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Earnings Date

July 29, 2026 — After Market Close (4:30 PM ET call)

Prepared

July 29, 2026

Last Earnings

May 6, 2026 (Q1 2026)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus has barely moved since the Q1 print, the bar is achievable given management’s raised guidance, and the structural AI-driven demand tailwind remains intact; the single biggest swing factor is whether product revenue growth can sustain its Q1 momentum or shows any deceleration.

Heading into Q2 2026, Fortinet carries one of the most constructive setups in cybersecurity. Management raised full-year guidance across all top-line metrics after a blowout Q1 (billings +31% YoY, product revenue +41%, EPS $0.82 vs. consensus ~$0.62), and Q2 guidance midpoints of $1.88B revenue and $2.14B billings sit essentially in line with current consensus of $1.89B and $2.14B respectively — implying the bar is not stretched. Estimate revisions have been remarkably stable since the May 6 print, with Q2 EPS consensus moving from ~$0.746 to $0.747 and billings barely shifting, suggesting the Street has high conviction in guidance rather than building in incremental upside. The stock surged ~65% from the Q1 earnings date through mid-July before pulling back ~10% into the print, meaning the multiple has expanded dramatically (NTM EV/EBITDA ~35x vs. ~21x at the Q1 date) but has partially digested the beat. The key wildcard is the durability of AI data center security demand: management explicitly characterized Q1 AI-driven product wins as structural and multi-quarter, but any signal of pull-forward or deal slippage — particularly in the large-enterprise segment where deals >$1M grew 60%+ in Q1 — could pressure the stock despite an in-line print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sits essentially at guidance midpoints for both revenue and billings, making this a clean execution test rather than a beat-the-bar setup. Billings is the bigger swing factor — a billings beat signals durable demand and accelerates the H2 service revenue inflection thesis; a miss would raise questions about whether Q1 was a pull-forward.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

Q2 2026 Guidance (Midpoint)

Consensus vs. Guidance

Total Revenue ($B)

$1.850

$1.630

$1.888

+15.8%

$1.880

+0.4%

Total Billings ($B)

$2.085

$1.778

$2.142

+20.5%

$2.140

+0.1%

Product Revenue ($B)

$0.645

$0.509

$0.639

+25.5%

N/A (not separately guided)

N/A

Service Revenue ($B)

$1.205

$1.121

$1.249

+11.4%

N/A (FY guided $5.12B midpoint)

N/A

Non-GAAP Operating Income ($B)

$0.662

$0.540

$0.643

+19.1%

~$0.639B (34% margin midpoint)

+0.6%

Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)

$0.82

$0.64

$0.747

+16.7%

$0.74

+0.9%

Free Cash Flow ($B)

$1.007 (record)

$0.284

$0.538

+89.4%

N/A

N/A

Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Q2 2026 guidance midpoints from Fortinet Q1 2026 earnings release and call (May 6, 2026). Revenue guidance: $1.83B–$1.93B; Billings guidance: $2.09B–$2.19B; Non-GAAP operating margin guidance: 33%–35%; Non-GAAP EPS guidance: $0.72–$0.76.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters) — Top 2 KPIs: Total Billings & Non-GAAP EPS

Quarter

KPI

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

Billings ($B)

$2.085

$1.799

+15.9%

BEAT

Q1 2026

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.82

$0.619

+32.5%

BEAT

Q4 2025

Billings ($B)

$2.370

$2.239

+5.9%

BEAT

Q4 2025

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.81

$0.740

+9.5%

BEAT

Q3 2025

Billings ($B)

$1.808

$1.809

-0.1%

IN LINE

Q3 2025

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.74

$0.632

+17.1%

BEAT

Q2 2025

Billings ($B)

$1.778

$1.733

+2.6%

BEAT

Q2 2025

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.64

$0.593

+7.9%

BEAT

Q1 2025

Billings ($B)

$1.597

$1.556

+2.6%

BEAT

Q1 2025

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.58

$0.535

+8.4%

BEAT

Q4 2024

Billings ($B)

$2.003

$1.956

+2.4%

BEAT

Q4 2024

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.74

$0.609

+21.5%

BEAT

Q3 2024

Billings ($B)

$1.582

$1.570

+0.8%

BEAT

Q3 2024

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

$0.63

$0.522

+20.7%

BEAT

Q2 2024

Billings ($B)

N/A — not in VA for this period

N/A

N/A

N/A

Q2 2024

Non-GAAP EPS ($)

N/A — not in VA for this period

N/A

N/A

N/A

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Pattern: Fortinet has beaten billings consensus in 7 of the last 7 available quarters, with the magnitude of beats accelerating sharply in Q1 2026 (+15.9%) and Q4 2025 (+5.9%), driven by AI data center demand and OT security; EPS beats have been consistent and large, reflecting operating leverage and disciplined buybacks.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance was raised materially at Q1 earnings (May 6) and has not been revised since — no 8-K, conference update, or pre-announcement has altered the numbers. Management tone has shifted from cautiously optimistic to explicitly confident, with CFO Ohlgart stating the company is “now super confident our growth rates are picking up.”

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

Q2 2026 Revenue

$1.83B – $1.93B (midpoint $1.88B, +15% YoY)

$1.888B

No post-earnings revision; consensus sits +0.4% above midpoint

Q2 2026 Billings

$2.09B – $2.19B (midpoint $2.14B, +20% YoY)

$2.142B

No post-earnings revision; consensus essentially at midpoint

Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Op. Margin

33.0% – 35.0% (midpoint 34.0%)

~34.1%

No revision; consensus at midpoint

Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS

$0.72 – $0.76 (midpoint $0.74)

$0.747

No revision; consensus +0.9% above midpoint

FY 2026 Revenue

$7.71B – $7.87B (midpoint $7.79B, +15% YoY)

$7.804B

No revision; consensus +0.2% above midpoint

FY 2026 Billings

$8.80B – $9.10B (midpoint $8.95B, +18% YoY)

$8.942B

No revision; consensus -0.1% below midpoint

FY 2026 Service Revenue

$5.09B – $5.15B (midpoint $5.12B, +12% YoY)

$5.124B

No revision; consensus at midpoint; H2 inflection thesis intact

FY 2026 Non-GAAP EPS

$3.10 – $3.16 (midpoint $3.13)

$3.156

No revision; consensus +0.8% above midpoint

Source: Fortinet Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript (May 6, 2026); Visible Alpha consensus data. No post-Q1 guidance revisions were identified via 8-K filings or conference appearances through July 29, 2026.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 billings consensus moved only ~$3M and EPS moved less than $0.002 over the 11 weeks since May 6 — signaling the Street has high conviction in guidance and is not building in incremental upside or downside. The gap between consensus and guidance midpoints is minimal (<1%), suggesting the bar is achievable but not easy to beat materially.

KPI (Period)

Estimate ~May 13, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline)

Current Consensus (Jul 29, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (May 6 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Total Revenue (Q2 2026)

$1.886B

$1.888B

+0.1%

$1.880B midpoint

Unchanged

+0.4%

Total Billings (Q2 2026)

$2.140B

$2.142B

+0.1%

$2.140B midpoint

Unchanged

+0.1%

Non-GAAP EPS (Q2 2026)

$0.746

$0.747

+0.1%

$0.74 midpoint

Unchanged

+0.9%

Total Revenue (FY 2026)

$7.804B

$7.804B

0.0%

$7.790B midpoint

Unchanged

+0.2%

Total Billings (FY 2026)

$8.942B

$8.942B

0.0%

$8.950B midpoint

Unchanged

-0.1%

Non-GAAP EPS (FY 2026)

$3.153

$3.156

+0.1%

$3.13 midpoint

Unchanged

+0.8%

Source: Visible Alpha revision history data (weekly, May 15 – July 29, 2026); Fortinet Q1 2026 earnings call guidance (May 6, 2026). Post-Q1 baseline uses the May 15, 2026 weekly snapshot as the first clean post-print reading. Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, confirming the Street is anchored to guidance rather than building in incremental upside.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: The ~67% rally from the Q1 earnings date (May 6) to the July peak was almost entirely multiple expansion — NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~21x to ~35x — driven by the AI data center security narrative and the magnitude of the Q1 beat, not estimate revisions (which barely moved). The stock has since pulled back ~10% from its July 14 peak of ~$167, suggesting some profit-taking ahead of the print.

Chart: FTNT vs. HACK (Cybersecurity ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date)

FTNT vs. HACK (Cybersecurity ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Period

FTNT Return

HACK Return

SPY Return

FTNT vs. HACK

Day after Q1 earnings (May 7)

+20.0%

+1.9%

-0.3%

+18.1pp

Peak (Jul 14, 2026)

+85.5%

+37.5%

+2.4%

+48.0pp

Jul 29, 2026 (pre-earnings)

+66.7%

+27.2%

+1.0%

+39.5pp

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data. HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF) used as the cybersecurity sector benchmark. FTNT’s outperformance vs. HACK reflects both the magnitude of the Q1 beat and the AI data center security premium the market has assigned to Fortinet’s ASIC-differentiated platform.

Valuation Context: NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~20.6x (at Q1 earnings date) to ~35.4x currently (+71.8%), while NTM EV/Sales expanded from ~7.6x to ~13.2x (+72.7%). The 3-month price return of +75% was almost entirely multiple expansion, not earnings revision. This creates a higher bar for the stock to react positively on the print — execution must be clean and guidance must hold or be raised.

6. Peer Commentary — Current-Quarter Read-Throughs

Scope: This section includes only peer commentary from May 30 – July 29, 2026 that pertains to the peer’s then-current or future reporting quarter (i.e., intra-quarter demand signals, forward guidance, or post-earnings outlooks for Q2 2026 or beyond). Commentary about prior-quarter results only is excluded. All peers report on calendar quarters unless noted.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call (June 2, 2026)

Relevance: PANW’s fiscal Q3 (ended April 2026) is the quarter immediately preceding FTNT’s Q2 2026. PANW’s Q4 FY2026 guidance and demand commentary directly read through to FTNT’s Q2 2026 environment.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) — Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call (June 3, 2026)

Relevance: CRWD’s fiscal Q1 FY2027 (ended April 2026) and its Q2 FY2027 guidance (May–July 2026) directly overlap with FTNT’s Q2 2026 calendar quarter.

Rubrik (RBRK) — Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call (June 4, 2026)

Relevance: RBRK’s fiscal Q1 FY2027 (ended April 2026) and Q2 FY2027 guidance (May–July 2026) overlap with FTNT’s Q2 2026 quarter.

Zscaler (ZS) — Zenith Live Investor Session (June 9, 2026)

Relevance: ZS’s fiscal Q3 FY2026 ended April 2026; this investor session provided intra-quarter demand commentary for ZS’s Q4 FY2026 (May–July 2026), which directly overlaps with FTNT’s Q2 2026.

Cloudflare (NET) — Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Relevance: NET’s investor day provided forward-looking demand commentary for its current fiscal quarter (Q2 2026, April–June 2026), overlapping with FTNT’s Q2 2026.

Okta (OKTA) — Evercore TMT Global Conference (June 3, 2026)

Relevance: OKTA’s fiscal Q1 FY2027 ended April 2026; conference commentary provided intra-quarter demand signals for Q2 FY2027 (May–July 2026), overlapping with FTNT’s Q2 2026.

Tenable (TENB) — William Blair Growth Stock Conference (June 4, 2026)

Relevance: TENB’s conference commentary provided forward-looking demand signals for its current fiscal quarter (Q2 2026, April–June 2026), overlapping with FTNT’s Q2 2026.

F5 Networks (FFIV) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings (July 27, 2026)

Relevance: FFIV’s fiscal Q3 (ended June 2026) is the most recent peer print before FTNT’s Q2 2026 earnings, providing a same-quarter demand read.

ServiceNow (NOW) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026)

Relevance: NOW’s Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) is the same calendar quarter as FTNT’s Q2 2026, providing a direct same-quarter enterprise software demand read.

Summary Read-Through: Across all relevant peers reporting in the May 30 – July 29, 2026 window, the demand signal is uniformly positive for FTNT’s Q2 2026. The “Mythos moment” AI security demand surge, firewall demand at decade highs (PANW), record pipelines (CRWD, OKTA), and same-quarter beats from FFIV and NOW all point to a robust demand environment through June 2026. The primary risk is whether FTNT’s specific execution — particularly in large-enterprise deals and SASE attach rates — matched the broader market tailwind.

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is Fortinet’s announcement that it will use Intel’s foundry to manufacture its next-generation SP6 ASIC chip — a strategic validation of Fortinet’s proprietary silicon differentiation and a potential supply chain advantage heading into a period of elevated hardware demand.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since the Q1 earnings date are 10b5-1 planned sales — there are no discretionary open-market sales or purchases. The absence of discretionary selling or buying is neutral; the planned sales are obligation-driven and do not signal negative conviction.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Date

Note

Xie Michael

VP, Engineering & CTO, Director

10b5-1 Planned Sale

3,907 shares

June 3, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; not discretionary

Ohlgart Christiane

Chief Financial Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

238 shares

May 20, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; not discretionary

Ohlgart Christiane

Chief Financial Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

756 shares

May 14, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; not discretionary

Ohlgart Christiane

Chief Financial Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

238 shares

May 11, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; not discretionary

Ohlgart Christiane

Chief Financial Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

756 shares

May 7, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; not discretionary

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. All transactions are coded ‘S’ (sale/disposition) under pre-established 10b5-1 trading plans. No open-market discretionary purchases or sales were identified in the period May 6 – July 29, 2026. The small share counts (particularly CFO Ohlgart’s recurring sales of 238–756 shares) are consistent with routine tax-withholding or scheduled liquidity transactions, not a signal of negative conviction.

9. Risks & Earnings-Day Watch Items

Key Risks

Earnings-Day Watch Items

  1. Total billings vs. $2.142B consensus: The single most important number. A beat of 3%+ would be highly positive; a miss would be a significant negative given the stock’s valuation.
  2. Product revenue vs. $639M consensus: Watch for AI data center deal commentary — are wins accelerating, stable, or showing any signs of lumpiness? Management’s characterization of demand durability is critical.
  3. Service billings and deferred revenue growth: These are the leading indicators for the H2 service revenue inflection. Service billings grew 27% in Q1; any acceleration would be highly positive.
  4. FY2026 guidance revision: Will management raise the full-year billings and revenue guidance again? Current FY guidance midpoints ($8.95B billings, $7.79B revenue) leave room for a raise if Q2 beats. A raise would be the most positive catalyst.
  5. Large-enterprise deal metrics: Deals >$1M grew 60%+ in Q1. Watch for Q2 commentary on deal count, deal value, and pipeline quality — particularly in AI data center and OT security.
  6. OT billings growth: OT billings grew 70%+ in Q1. Any commentary on whether this pace is sustainable or was driven by one-time factors.
  7. Sovereign SASE update: Management described Sovereign SASE as “probably almost the same size as cloud-based SASE, probably even bigger” in Q1. Any quantification or update on this segment would be a positive catalyst.
  8. Intel SP6 ASIC update: Any additional details on the Intel foundry partnership timeline, production ramp, or cost implications for the SP6 chip.
  9. Share repurchase activity: With ~$766M remaining authorization as of May 6, watch for Q2 buyback activity and any new authorization announcement.
  10. Non-GAAP operating margin: Guided 33%–35% for Q2. Any upside to 35%+ would signal operating leverage is tracking ahead of plan.