GNRC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
GNRC Report Total Net Sales BEAT pred ~$1.20B (+13% y/y) vs. cons $1.178B (+11% y/y) MEDIUM
GNRC Report C&I Segment Sales (data-center proxy) BEAT pred ~$520M (+43% y/y) vs. cons $500M (+38% y/y) MEDIUM
GNRC Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.10 vs. cons $1.99 MEDIUM
GNRC Guide FY2026 Net Sales Growth Guide BETTER guide ~18% vs. cons/prior guide ~16.5% midpoint (FY2026) MEDIUM
GNRC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guide BETTER guide ~19.7% vs. cons/prior guide ~19.0% midpoint (FY2026) MEDIUM
GNRC Guide Q3 2026 Net Sales Growth Guide BETTER guide ~13% vs. cons ~11% (Q3 2026) LOW
GNRC Guide Hyperscale NTP Conversion (binding status) BETTER guide/commentary ~$600M converted to binding vs. cons $600M still nonbinding (as of Q2 2026 update) LOW
GNRC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +7.5% MEDIUM
GNRC Return 5-day cumulative residual +11.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) GNRC's three prior 2026 prints (Q4'25, Q1'26, and the Aug'25 Q2 report) all showed continued upward drift for 3-5 days after the initial ~17-20% earnings pop as analysts raised estimates/targets on beat-and-raise dynamics, rather than fading. With the stock down ~34% off June highs on macro AI-capex fear rather than company-specific deterioration, a confirmed beat plus reiterated/raised FY guide and any hyperscale NTP-to-binding progress should trigger a relief-rally that extends via estimate revisions over the week, unless hyperscale contracts remain stuck as nonbinding (the key downside risk that could instead cap or fade the move given still-fragile sector sentiment). MEDIUM