GRMN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
GRMN Report Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.97B vs. cons ~$1.93B MEDIUM
GRMN Report Pro forma EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.38 vs. cons ~$2.27 HIGH
GRMN Report Gross margin (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~59.3% vs. cons ~58.5% MEDIUM
GRMN Guide FY2026 revenue guide BETTER guide ~$8.0B vs. cons ~$7.95B (FY2026) MEDIUM
GRMN Guide FY2026 pro forma EPS guide BETTER guide ~$9.60 vs. cons ~$9.45 (FY2026) MEDIUM
GRMN Guide FY2026 gross margin guide BETTER guide ~58.8% vs. cons ~58.5% (FY2026) LOW
GRMN Guide Memory-cost / tariff-refund margin commentary UNKNOWN 'controlled in 2026, 2027 risk' framing ~unchanged vs. cons expecting no 2026 hit (FY2026-27) LOW
GRMN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
GRMN Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (STABILIZE) Base case is a solid double beat plus the customary mid-year FY guide raise, which drives positive day-1 revisions. But the stock ran ~+4.6% on 7/28 into the print and sits near April highs (~$254, ~27x), so much of a beat+raise is already discounted. Out-period math is a governor: hitting the raised FY still requires heavy H2-weighted Outdoor/fitness launches against the toughest comps of the year, and management's conservative 'memory costs bite in 2027' framing caps how far estimates get pushed up. Net: initial pop holds but does not compound — stabilize near the day-1 residual rather than follow through, with fade risk if the guide raise is only token. LOW