I'll research GRMN before writing the preview. Let me gather recent financials, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings call transcript and the Q1 2026 10-Q MD&A.Let me get the full-year 2026 guidance (issued in February) and recent stock/news context.Let me read the Q4 2025 earnings call for the full-year 2026 guidance details.Let me get last year's Q2 (2025Q2) results for the YoY comparison and check recent news + consensus.Let me get the Q2 2025 earnings release for the YoY baseline and check consensus via web search.I have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

Garmin (GRMN) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports before market open, Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (fiscal Q2 ended ~June 27, 2026)

The Setup in One Paragraph

Garmin heads into its Q2 print on a hot streak — five consecutive quarters of accelerating, broad-based strength — but faces its toughest year-over-year comparison of 2026 and a market that has already priced in a lot of good news. The stock closed at $253.69 on 7/28, up sharply into the print (+~10% over the prior two weeks, and roughly +25% YTD from ~$202 in early January), sitting just below its April 2026 high near $267. Consensus looks for ~$1.93B revenue (+6.4% YoY) and ~$2.27 pro forma EPS (+4.6% YoY). The bigger swing factor is arguably not the print itself but whether management raises full-year guidance (as it did at this same quarter in 2025) and what it says about memory/component cost inflation and potential tariff refunds.

What the Street Expects

Metric Q2 2026 Consensus Q2 2025 Actual Implied YoY
Revenue ~$1.93B (some at $1.926B) $1.815B +6.4%
Pro forma EPS ~$2.27 (some at $2.29) $2.17 +4.6%

A few things stand out: - Growth deceleration is expected and largely mechanical. Q1 2026 grew +14%, but Q2 2025 was Garmin's strongest comp of last year (+20% revenue, +38% operating income, fitness +41%), inflated by the Forerunner 570/970 and Venu X1 launches. A +6% print against that base is a high bar, not a sign of weakening demand. - Garmin has beaten EPS in each of the last four quarters (Q1 2026 revenue of $1.75B beat the ~$1.71B consensus and EPS of $2.08 beat handily), so the buy-side "whisper" likely sits above the $2.27 headline. - Sell-side sentiment is cautious: an overall "Hold" with roughly 8 analysts covering; market cap ~$46B (~27x the $9.35 FY EPS guide).

The Guidance Question (the real catalyst)

In February, Garmin set FY2026 guidance: revenue ~$7.9B (+9%), gross margin ~58.5%, operating margin ~25.5%, 16% tax rate, and pro forma EPS ~$9.35 (+9%), plus FCF ~$1.4B on elevated capex of ~$400M (new Thailand factory, live early 2027). On the Q1 call in April, management explicitly maintained that guide despite the beat, citing that Q1 is the seasonally smallest quarter.

Why this matters for tomorrow: - H1 revenue would be ~$3.68B if consensus holds ($1.753B Q1 + ~$1.93B Q2), leaving ~$4.22B needed in H2 to hit $7.9B — very achievable given management flagged H2-weighted product launches, especially in Outdoor. - Garmin raised full-year guidance at the Q2 2025 call after a strong first half. Given the Q1 2026 beat and continued momentum, a similar raise is the base-case expectation. A failure to raise (or a merely token raise) could disappoint given the run-up in the stock. - Note the risk of a sharp reaction either way: the stock jumped from ~$217 to ~$248 after the Q4 2025 print but fell ~12% in a day after the Q3 2025 report (Oct 29). This is a name that gaps on guidance surprises.

Segment Watch List

Management has de-emphasized individual segment targets in favor of consolidated guidance, but the drivers still matter:

Margins, Memory & Tariffs — the three P&L wildcards

  1. Memory/component cost inflation. This is the most-asked question. Management says higher costs flow through inventory with a lag, so 2026 is "somewhat muted" (protected by pre-built safety stock) with the real impact hitting in 2027. FY gross margin was guided down only slightly (58.5% vs 58.7% in 2025). Any change to the "well-controlled in 2026" framing would move the stock.
  2. FX. A big Q1 gross-margin tailwind (+180bps) came from favorable currency. Watch whether the USD move in Q2 sustains or reverses that benefit.
  3. Tariffs / IEEPA refunds. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs unauthorized (Feb 20, 2026). Garmin has not recorded any receivable or benefit for potential refunds of previously paid tariffs — this is an unbaked upside optionality. Watch for any update on the magnitude or timing of a refund accrual, and on go-forward tariff assumptions.

Balance Sheet / Capital Return

Garmin remains a fortress: ~$4.3B cash and marketable securities, no debt, ~$469M Q1 free cash flow. It raised the dividend 17% to $4.20/share for 2026 and has a $500M buyback authorization through 2028 (~$491M remaining after Q1). Capex steps up to ~$400M in 2026 for the Thailand plant. Capital return is steady but buybacks are modest relative to cash generation.

Bottom Line — What to Focus On

  1. Guidance raise or not? The single biggest catalyst given the stock's run and Garmin's history of a mid-year raise.
  2. Fitness durability against the toughest comp of the year — volume vs. ASP, share gains, and Connect+.
  3. Outdoor H2 launch confidence — the segment's back-half acceleration underpins the full-year story.
  4. Memory-cost and tariff-refund commentary — the key inputs to the 2026→2027 margin bridge.

Expectations are elevated and the stock is near highs, so a "solid beat + modest raise" may be the bar just to hold the line. The asymmetric risk is in the qualitative commentary — memory costs, Outdoor timing, and whether management signals confidence to push the FY numbers higher.

Preview based on Garmin's Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings calls and filings, the Q2 2025 earnings release (YoY comps), recent price action, and published consensus estimates. Figures are pro forma unless noted; fiscal quarters are 13-week periods.