| HII |
Report |
Shipbuilding revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.50B vs. cons ~$2.40B |
MEDIUM |
| HII |
Report |
Shipbuilding operating margin |
MISS |
pred ~5.5% vs. cons ~5.8% |
MEDIUM |
| HII |
Report |
EPS (diluted) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.80 vs. cons ~$3.85 |
LOW |
| HII |
Guide |
FY26 shipbuilding revenue guide (raise?) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$9.7–9.9B vs. cons ~$9.85B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| HII |
Guide |
FY26 free cash flow target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$500–600M vs. cons ~$550M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| HII |
Guide |
Virginia Block VI / Columbia sub award & backlog |
UNKNOWN |
backlog ~$54B vs. cons ~$57B if award books (Q2/H2 FY26) |
LOW |
| HII |
Guide |
Q2 free cash flow (reported, timing-driven YoY drop) |
LOWER |
pred ~$0M vs. cons ~+$50M (Q2, vs +$730M PY) |
LOW |
| HII |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| HII |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.0% (FADE) |
Low bar (stock ~37% off highs, de-risked -4% into print) supports a modest day-1 relief pop on the shipbuilding revenue beat and structural-demand narrative. But the beat is volume/timing-driven while shipbuilding margins (LHA-8/CVN-79) stay soft, Q2 FCF is near break-even vs +$730M PY, and management is likely to reaffirm rather than raise FY guide — so out-period estimates don't move up (the reaffirm mathematically implies flat-to-down H2 shipbuilding). With the marquee submarine award risk of slipping again, the pop fades as revisions stay flat-to-down and margin/cash skepticism reasserts. |
LOW |