{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Shipbuilding revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.50B vs. cons ~$2.40B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Shipbuilding operating margin",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~5.5% vs. cons ~5.8%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (diluted)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.80 vs. cons ~$3.85",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 shipbuilding revenue guide (raise?)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.7\u20139.9B vs. cons ~$9.85B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 free cash flow target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$500\u2013600M vs. cons ~$550M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Virginia Block VI / Columbia sub award & backlog",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "backlog ~$54B vs. cons ~$57B if award books (Q2/H2 FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 free cash flow (reported, timing-driven YoY drop)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "pred ~$0M vs. cons ~+$50M (Q2, vs +$730M PY)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Low bar (stock ~37% off highs, de-risked -4% into print) supports a modest day-1 relief pop on the shipbuilding revenue beat and structural-demand narrative. But the beat is volume/timing-driven while shipbuilding margins (LHA-8/CVN-79) stay soft, Q2 FCF is near break-even vs +$730M PY, and management is likely to reaffirm rather than raise FY guide \u2014 so out-period estimates don't move up (the reaffirm mathematically implies flat-to-down H2 shipbuilding). With the marquee submarine award risk of slipping again, the pop fades as revisions stay flat-to-down and margin/cash skepticism reasserts.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}