HII Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HII Report Q2 2026 Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.90 vs. cons ~$3.82 MEDIUM
HII Report Q2 2026 Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.23B vs. cons ~$3.17B MEDIUM
HII Report Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow MISS pred ~-$150M vs. cons ~$0M (guide midpoint of -$100M/+$100M) LOW
HII Guide FY2026 Total Revenue Guide (Shipbuilding $9.7-9.9B + Mission Tech $3.0-3.2B) UNCHANGED guide ~$12.9B vs. cons ~$12.87B (FY2026) MEDIUM
HII Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guide UNCHANGED guide ~$550M vs. cons ~$550M (FY2026), though back-half cash ramp risk flagged MEDIUM
HII Guide Q3 2026 Shipbuilding Revenue Guide BETTER guide ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.45B (Q3 2026) LOW
HII Guide Virginia-class Block VI Multiyear Submarine Contract Definitization/Savings BETTER guide ~$2.4B in aggregate program savings on 9 boats vs. cons ~$0 (no prior visibility) (multiyear contract, 2026 signing expected) MEDIUM
HII Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
HII Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (STABILIZE) Q1's pattern showed a sharp ~-10.8% day-1 drop on margin/FCF disappointment despite an EPS beat, with the 5-day residual barely changing (~-10.0%), i.e., the shock was absorbed quickly rather than compounding. This quarter, expectations are already reset far lower (stock down ~35-40% from highs, targets cut), FY26 guidance is expected to be reaffirmed (not cut), and the just-certified Virginia-class multiyear submarine deal is a genuine incremental positive not present in Q1. With no clear out-period EPS/FCF cut catalyst and backlog at a record $54B, we expect the initial move (whichever direction) to largely hold rather than fade sharply or extend into a large follow-through move — consistent with a stabilization pattern over the week. LOW