{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.90 vs. cons ~$3.82",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.23B vs. cons ~$3.17B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-$150M vs. cons ~$0M (guide midpoint of -$100M/+$100M)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Total Revenue Guide (Shipbuilding $9.7-9.9B + Mission Tech $3.0-3.2B)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$12.9B vs. cons ~$12.87B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$550M vs. cons ~$550M (FY2026), though back-half cash ramp risk flagged",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Shipbuilding Revenue Guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.45B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Virginia-class Block VI Multiyear Submarine Contract Definitization/Savings",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.4B in aggregate program savings on 9 boats vs. cons ~$0 (no prior visibility) (multiyear contract, 2026 signing expected)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q1's pattern showed a sharp ~-10.8% day-1 drop on margin/FCF disappointment despite an EPS beat, with the 5-day residual barely changing (~-10.0%), i.e., the shock was absorbed quickly rather than compounding. This quarter, expectations are already reset far lower (stock down ~35-40% from highs, targets cut), FY26 guidance is expected to be reaffirmed (not cut), and the just-certified Virginia-class multiyear submarine deal is a genuine incremental positive not present in Q1. With no clear out-period EPS/FCF cut catalyst and backlog at a record $54B, we expect the initial move (whichever direction) to largely hold rather than fade sharply or extend into a large follow-through move \u2014 consistent with a stabilization pattern over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}