HII Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HII Report Diluted EPS MISS pred ~$3.70 vs. cons $3.83 MEDIUM
HII Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.16B vs. cons $3.15B HIGH
HII Report Shipbuilding operating margin MISS pred ~5.70% vs. cons 5.85% MEDIUM
HII Guide Free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$550M midpoint vs. cons $550M (FY2026) MEDIUM
HII Guide Shipbuilding revenue UNCHANGED guide ~$9.80B midpoint vs. cons $9.85B (FY2026) HIGH
HII Guide Shipbuilding operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~6.00% midpoint vs. cons 6.00% (FY2026) HIGH
HII Guide Virginia- and Columbia-class contract awards LOWER guide ~2 awards in 2H2026 vs. cons 2 awards by 2Q2026 (contract timing) MEDIUM
HII Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.8% MEDIUM
HII Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Day-5 residual ~-6.2% vs. day-1 residual ~-4.8%; an EPS and shipbuilding-margin miss plus submarine-award slippage would reduce confidence in second-half collections, leaving the unchanged ~$550M FY2026 free-cash-flow midpoint vulnerable to estimate cuts despite an in-line revenue result. MEDIUM