HII Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HII Report Diluted EPS MISS pred ~$4.12 vs. cons $4.34 MEDIUM
HII Report Shipbuilding operating margin MISS pred ~5.5% vs. cons 5.8% MEDIUM
HII Report Free cash flow MISS pred ~($135M) vs. cons ($20M) MEDIUM
HII Guide FY26 free cash flow LOWER guide ~$450M vs. cons $540M (FY26) MEDIUM
HII Guide FY26 shipbuilding operating margin LOWER guide ~5.5% vs. cons 5.9% (FY26) MEDIUM
HII Guide FY26 shipbuilding revenue UNCHANGED guide ~$9.8B vs. cons $9.8B (FY26) HIGH
HII Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.0% MEDIUM
HII Return 5-day cumulative residual -8.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest EPS and shipbuilding-margin miss combined with a FY26 FCF-guide reduction would drive out-period EPS and cash-conversion estimate cuts; unchanged revenue would not offset weaker margin and working-capital math. MEDIUM