HLT Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HLT Report Adjusted EBITDA (Q2) BEAT pred ~$1,045M vs. cons $1,030M MEDIUM
HLT Report Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2) BEAT pred ~$2.30 vs. cons $2.25 MEDIUM
HLT Report System-wide RevPAR (CN, Q2) IN-LINE pred ~+2.8% vs. cons +2.5% MEDIUM
HLT Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide UNCHANGED guide ~$4,040-4,080M (mid ~$4,060M) vs. cons $4,060M (FY2026) MEDIUM
HLT Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$8.85-8.97 (mid ~$8.91) vs. cons $8.90 (FY2026) MEDIUM
HLT Guide FY2026 System-wide RevPAR guide UNCHANGED guide reaffirm ~+2-3% (mid +2.5%) vs. cons +2.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
HLT Guide FY2026 Net unit growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~6.0-7.0% (mid 6.5%) vs. cons ~6.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
HLT Guide Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS guide UNKNOWN guide ~$2.45 vs. cons ~$2.47 (Q3 2026) LOW
HLT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.7% MEDIUM
HLT Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (STABILIZE) Modest EBITDA/EPS beat (aided by buybacks) but consensus already sits at/above the top of guidance, so HLT screens as priced-for-perfection. Q2 optical drags (Middle East ~1.5pt RevPAR drag, tough year-ago comps) plus a cautious FY reaffirm rather than a clean raise trigger a sell-the-news day-1 fade. Out-period math is neutral-to-negative: a reaffirmed FY range on a Q2 beat implies an implicit 2H trim, keeping estimates flat and capping upside. But as a high-quality asset-light compounder off its June highs (~$340 to $331), the initial dip attracts quality buyers, so the move stabilizes rather than compounds lower over 5 days. MEDIUM