{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,045M vs. cons $1,030M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.30 vs. cons $2.25",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "System-wide RevPAR (CN, Q2)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+2.8% vs. cons +2.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4,040-4,080M (mid ~$4,060M) vs. cons $4,060M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.85-8.97 (mid ~$8.91) vs. cons $8.90 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 System-wide RevPAR guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirm ~+2-3% (mid +2.5%) vs. cons +2.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net unit growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~6.0-7.0% (mid 6.5%) vs. cons ~6.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.45 vs. cons ~$2.47 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.7,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Modest EBITDA/EPS beat (aided by buybacks) but consensus already sits at/above the top of guidance, so HLT screens as priced-for-perfection. Q2 optical drags (Middle East ~1.5pt RevPAR drag, tough year-ago comps) plus a cautious FY reaffirm rather than a clean raise trigger a sell-the-news day-1 fade. Out-period math is neutral-to-negative: a reaffirmed FY range on a Q2 beat implies an implicit 2H trim, keeping estimates flat and capping upside. But as a high-quality asset-light compounder off its June highs (~$340 to $331), the initial dip attracts quality buyers, so the move stabilizes rather than compounds lower over 5 days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}