HOOD Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HOOD Report Total net revenue BEAT pred ~$1.34B vs. cons $1.29B MEDIUM
HOOD Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.47 vs. cons $0.43 MEDIUM
HOOD Report Net deposits BEAT pred ~$17.5B vs. cons ~$15B MEDIUM
HOOD Guide Prediction-market / event-contract (other transaction) revenue BETTER pred ~$190M vs. cons ~$130M (Q2 2026); Rothera/Crypto.com scaling MEDIUM
HOOD Guide FY26 adjusted OpEx+SBC guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.7–2.825B vs. cons ~$2.76B (FY2026), Trump Accounts build baked in MEDIUM
HOOD Guide Crypto trading revenue UNKNOWN pred ~$90M vs. cons $87.6M (Q2 2026), tough YoY comp vs $160M LOW
HOOD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +6.5% MEDIUM
HOOD Return 5-day cumulative residual +8.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Expectations were reset (stock -21% into print), and a revenue/EPS/net-deposit beat plus the prediction-markets narrative (Rothera JV, Crypto.com talks, Bernstein/Piper flagging event-contract revenue overtaking crypto) drives upward out-period revisions that outweigh the ugly crypto comp; high beta (~2.3) amplifies continuation. Risk: crypto softness and cost step-up could cap the move, hence only modest net follow-through above the day-1 pop. LOW