{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.34B vs. cons $1.29B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.47 vs. cons $0.43",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net deposits",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$17.5B vs. cons ~$15B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Prediction-market / event-contract (other transaction) revenue",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~$190M vs. cons ~$130M (Q2 2026); Rothera/Crypto.com scaling",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted OpEx+SBC guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.7\u20132.825B vs. cons ~$2.76B (FY2026), Trump Accounts build baked in",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Crypto trading revenue",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~$90M vs. cons $87.6M (Q2 2026), tough YoY comp vs $160M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 6.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 8.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Expectations were reset (stock -21% into print), and a revenue/EPS/net-deposit beat plus the prediction-markets narrative (Rothera JV, Crypto.com talks, Bernstein/Piper flagging event-contract revenue overtaking crypto) drives upward out-period revisions that outweigh the ugly crypto comp; high beta (~2.3) amplifies continuation. Risk: crypto softness and cost step-up could cap the move, hence only modest net follow-through above the day-1 pop.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}