I'll research HOOD before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, earnings, and news in parallel.Let me read the most recent quarter's release and call, plus the year-ago quarter for comparison.Let me pull the year-ago Q2 2025 release for the YoY comparison baseline.I now have what I need. Let me write the preview.
Robinhood heads into this print as a very different, far more diversified company than the meme-stock brokerage of a few years ago — but also as a stock that has become a battleground. Shares roughly doubled off the February 2026 lows (~$73) to peak above $117 in early July, then rolled over hard, closing at $92.78 on July 28, down about 21% in the three weeks into the print and down ~19% year-to-date. Consensus, per Barron's, is looking for roughly $0.43 in EPS on ~$1.29 billion of revenue (up ~30% YoY from $989M), with crypto trading revenue expected to fall to ~$87.6M from $160M a year ago, and operating expenses stepping up to ~$777M from $550M. The debate is simple: can the new growth engines — prediction markets, equities/options, net-interest, and the fast-scaling wallet-share products — more than offset a punishing crypto comp and a rising cost base?
This is the single biggest thing to watch. In Q1 2026, event contracts traded hit a record 8.8 billion, and management said April prediction-market volume was tracking to ~$3 billion (its second-best month ever). The story has since accelerated: - Robinhood launched its Rothera exchange JV with Susquehanna (SIG) during Q2, giving it end-to-end control over product selection and pricing rather than relying purely on third-party exchanges like Kalshi. - Sell-side (Bernstein, Piper Sandler) has begun arguing prediction-market revenue could overshadow crypto revenue as soon as this quarter — a genuine narrative shift. - Just this week, reports emerged that Robinhood is in talks to add Crypto.com's prediction contracts to its platform, expanding beyond Kalshi (note: partner-turning-competitor dynamics here). - Watch for the first clean disclosure of prediction-market/"other transaction" revenue. In Q1, "other transaction revenue" (mostly event contracts) was $147M, up 320% YoY — this line is now bigger than equities and approaching crypto.
Risk flag: several states are challenging prediction markets on jurisdictional grounds (states vs. CFTC). Vlad framed it as a multi-year jurisdictional dispute, but it's a live regulatory/headline risk.
Year-ago Q2 2025 crypto revenue was $160M (up 98% YoY) — an extremely tough comparison. In Q1 2026 crypto revenue was already $134M, down 47% YoY, with Robinhood-app crypto notional volume down ~48%. Consensus sees crypto trading revenue near $87.6M. Two mitigants to listen for: - Bitstamp (institutional) has been resilient through the downturn; watch the institutional/lending contribution. - Management is trying to reframe crypto around tokenization and infrastructure (Robinhood Chain, stock tokens, the July UK crypto event) rather than token prices. Crypto is now <20% of revenue (~18% in 2025), so the diversification thesis gets its real test here.
Management consistently redirects attention from take rates to net deposits as the true measure of customer health. Q2 2025 was $13.8B; Q1 2026 was $17.7B (22% annualized growth), and April 2026 was already running ~$5B month-to-date despite tax season. A strong net-deposit number (with continued mid-20s% annualized growth) would reinforce the "engaged, resilient customer" story regardless of trading mix.
NII was $359M in Q1 (+24% YoY), driven by a margin book up 93% YoY to $17.0B, offsetting lower short-term rates. Two nuances: - Securities lending net has been under pressure (low volatility, few IPOs → weak special rebates). A pickup in the IPO calendar could drive a rebound; watch fully-paid sec-lending adoption (~25% of customers / ~50% of assets in Q1). - Robinhood moved ~$6B of cash sweep onto the balance sheet as free credit balances to fund margin — a structural change affecting the NII mix. With rate cuts in play, the rate backdrop is a headwind to spread income.
These are the durability story that supports the multiple: - Gold subscribers: 4.3M in Q1 (+36% YoY), ~16% attach, 40% of new customers. - Gold Card: >800K cardholders, ~$15B annualized purchase volume; on track for 1M cards / $100M ARR this year. Watch the new Platinum Card rollout. - Robinhood Banking: >$2B deposits, >125K funded customers, ~40% direct-deposit attach (grew 5x in a quarter). - Retirement AUC crossed $30B in Q2 (was $27.4B in Q1, +90% YoY); Strategies (robo) >$1.6B AUM.
This is where the EPS bar gets tricky: - FY26 adjusted OpEx+SBC guidance was raised to $2.7–2.825B (from $2.6–2.725B) to fund a $100M Trump Accounts build, ~half of it in Q2. Consensus opex ~$777M reflects this step-up. - Trump Accounts (Robinhood as sole initial broker/trustee, 5.5M+ kids signed up, 60M eligible) is contracted cost-plus with a small margin — modestly revenue-positive, strategically a top-of-funnel play for the next generation. Watch for a launch update. - In June, Robinhood announced ~10% workforce cuts (from ~2,900 employees) — watch for any restructuring charges and commentary on the AI-driven efficiency narrative (90%+ of staff using AI tools; commits/engineer up 50%). - There's also a CFO transition (Shiv Verma now CFO; SBC modification charges have been carved out of adjusted figures).
| Metric | Q2 2025 (a) | Q1 2026 (a) | Q2 2026 (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $989M | $1,067M | ~$1.29B (+~30% YoY) |
| Diluted EPS | $0.42 | $0.38 | ~$0.43 |
| Crypto trading rev | $160M | $134M | ~$87.6M |
| Total OpEx | $550M | $656M | ~$777M |
| Net deposits | $13.8B | $17.7B | watch for ~$15B+ |
| Gold subscribers | 3.5M | 4.3M | watch for continued growth |
(Q2 2026 figures are Street estimates per Barron's, not company guidance; Robinhood does not guide revenue.)
Note: All actual (a) figures are from Robinhood's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings releases; Q2 2026 estimates and the layoff/Crypto.com/insider details are from recent press (Barron's, WSJ) and SEC filings. Estimates are the market's expectations, not company guidance.
Want me to go deeper on any single vector — e.g., build a prediction-markets revenue sensitivity model, or pull the actual Q2 2026 numbers into this framework once they hit tomorrow?