| HOOD |
Report |
Total Net Revenue (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.34B vs. cons $1.29B |
MEDIUM |
| HOOD |
Report |
Diluted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.47 vs. cons $0.43 |
MEDIUM |
| HOOD |
Report |
Crypto Transaction Revenue (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$115M vs. cons $87.6M |
LOW |
| HOOD |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted OpEx & SBC Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.76B vs. cons $2.7625B midpoint (FY2026, prior range $2.7B-$2.825B reiterated) |
MEDIUM |
| HOOD |
Guide |
Net Deposits Annualized Growth Rate |
BETTER |
guide/commentary ~22% vs. cons ~18% (Q3 2026 implied trajectory) |
LOW |
| HOOD |
Guide |
Prediction Markets Monthly Volume Run-Rate |
BETTER |
guide/commentary ~$5B/month vs. cons ~$3B/month (Q3 2026, vs. ~$3B April/record run-rate cited pre-print) |
MEDIUM |
| HOOD |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+7.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| HOOD |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+9.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock had already de-rated ~23% off July highs into the print on crypto-selloff fears and high-beta de-risking, resetting the bar low. If revenue/EPS beat and crypto reverses the Q1 miss pattern (aided by the stronger risk-on tape through May-July embedded in Q2 results) while prediction-markets/event-contract volumes keep scaling (Bernstein/Piper narrative, Crypto.com JV talks), sell-side is likely to raise out-period estimates (2026/2027 revenue and EBITDA) rather than trim them, since the incremental growth driver (prediction markets) is structurally additive and OpEx guidance is being reiterated rather than cut, implying no negative revisions to offset the beat. This supports follow-through over the 5-day window rather than a fade, though continued Trump Accounts investment and elevated valuation cap the magnitude and leave some risk of profit-taking mid-week. |
LOW |