Report Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (after market close) | Call: 5:00 p.m. ET
HOOD arrives at this print in a very different position than it did three months ago. The stock rallied hard off its April lows — from roughly $70 in late April to an intraday peak near $120 in early-to-mid July — before rolling over sharply into earnings, closing around $92.78 on July 28, roughly 23% off its July peak. The pre-earnings pullback has been attributed less to a single company-specific event than to a mix of a broader crypto selloff (Bitcoin slipping back toward the low-$60,000s), tech/high-beta de-risking, elevated valuation (trailing P/E in the high-40s), and typical pre-print positioning, including some institutional trimming and routine insider 10b5-1 sales.
Analysts are anticipating earnings of 43 cents per share and revenue expected at $1.29 billion compared with $989 million for the same period last year. Within that, the company is projected to report crypto-related trading revenue of $87.6 million, down significantly from $160 million in the second quarter of 2025, while bullish investors are hoping to see crypto trading declines offset by revenue from stock and options trading, as well as the company's burgeoning prediction markets business. On the cost side, operating expenses are anticipated to have risen to $777 million for the quarter compared with $550 million for the same period last year. Some sell-side estimates put Q2 revenue slightly lower, in the $1.24–$1.28 billion range, which would still represent roughly 24-29% year-over-year growth.
Investors should also expect the P&L to absorb ~$28 million of restructuring charges tied to Robinhood's decision to cut roughly 10% of its workforce (about 290 positions) — a move the company disclosed in June as part of its efficiency push.
Q1 2026 is the key comparison point, and it's worth remembering that quarter's mixed reception. Robinhood reported total net revenues that increased 15% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, with diluted EPS up 3% year-over-year to $0.38, Net Deposits of $18 billion at a 22% annualized growth rate, and Robinhood Gold Subscribers growing 36% year-over-year to a record 4.3 million. However, that print missed Street estimates on both revenue (~$1.14B expected) and EPS (~$0.40 expected), driven largely by a 47% year-over-year plunge in crypto transaction revenue to $134 million, and the stock fell roughly 6-11% in reaction. That "crypto miss, diversification offsets it partially" pattern is exactly the dynamic the Street is watching for again in Q2 — only now against a much higher embedded growth/prediction-markets narrative and a much higher stock price, raising the bar for a positive reaction.
Other Q1 context that frames guidance and trajectory: - Total operating expenses increased 18% year-over-year to $656 million, with adjusted operating expenses and SBC up 14% to $607 million, which includes $14 million of costs related to Rothera and Trump Accounts. - The company is raising its full year 2026 outlook for adjusted OpEx and SBC by the equivalent of $100 million, with an updated range of $2.7 billion to $2.825 billion, to fund the build-out of the Trump Accounts platform (contracted on a cost-plus basis with a small margin). - Management noted Q2 was off to a good start in April, as equity and option trading volumes were on track to be the highest month of the year, and even with tax season, net deposits were approximately $5 billion month-to-date, and prediction markets were on track for around $3 billion in April volume, likely the second-best month ever. Crypto volumes, however, were flagged as roughly flat with the soft Q1 run-rate.
1. Prediction markets — the story overtaking crypto. This has become the single biggest narrative shift for HOOD. Robinhood's Susquehanna joint-venture exchange, Rothera (branded "Roth"), and its prediction markets hub have scaled quickly — reports note the platform drove more than $3 billion of wagers since launch with average daily volume surging sharply in July versus June. Bernstein and Piper Sandler have both argued prediction-market revenue could overtake crypto revenue as soon as this quarter, with Bernstein modeling roughly $586 million of prediction-market revenue for 2026 and a path toward $1.7 billion by 2028. Watch for updated event-contract volumes (a record 8.8 billion contracts traded in Q1) and commentary on the Crypto.com prediction-market talks reported this week, which would expand Robinhood's supplier base beyond Kalshi.
2. Crypto — still the swing factor. Even as the mix shifts, crypto remains a meaningful and volatile piece of transaction revenue. A weak digital-asset tape in Q2 (Bitcoin drawdowns) makes the ~$87.6 million consensus crypto revenue estimate a real risk factor — a miss here was the proximate cause of the Q1 stock reaction, and it's the metric analysts will scrutinize first.
3. Net deposits, Gold, and funded customers — the "core health" gauges. Management has repeatedly called net deposit growth its "North Star" KPI. Investors should track whether the 20%+ annualized net deposit growth rate persisted, whether Gold subscribers extended their run past 4.3 million, and whether funded customers (27.4 million as of Q1) kept growing alongside Banking, the Gold/Platinum credit card ramp, and Robinhood Strategies AUM.
4. Cost discipline amid heavy investment. With opex guided sharply higher for the year (partly Trump Accounts-related) and a 10% headcount reduction now in effect, the market will want reassurance that Robinhood can keep delivering operating leverage (Q1 Adjusted EBITDA margin was 50%) even as it invests in AI, international expansion, Rothera, and new products like Robinhood Social and Cortex Assistant.
5. Trump Accounts rollout. Robinhood is the sole initial broker/trustee for the U.S. Treasury's Trump Accounts program (built with BNY), with millions of children already signed up ahead of a potential addressable base of up to ~70 million eligible minors. This is a long-duration, low-margin-but-strategic initiative; expect updates on engagement, cost run-rate (about half of the incremental $100 million investment was slated for Q2), and any early cross-sell signal.
6. Capital returns and buybacks. Robinhood has an active $1.5 billion buyback authorization (refreshed in March) expected to run over roughly three years, following $250 million repurchased in Q1. Given the stock's pullback into the print, pace of buybacks could be a modest offset narrative.
Sentiment remains a barbell: sell-side price targets are broadly bullish (a consensus/median target cited recently in the $110 range, with individual targets spanning roughly $100 to $160 from firms including KBW, Mizuho, BTIG, Piper Sandler, and Bernstein), reflecting confidence in the multi-product diversification thesis (banking, credit cards, prediction markets, tokenization, international, wealth management via TradePMR). At the same time, the stock's technical picture heading into the print has been weak — trading below its 50-day moving average with the ~$89–$93 zone cited as key support — and options/futures markets are pricing a wide potential move given HOOD's high beta and history of double-digit post-earnings swings.
This print is a test of Robinhood's diversification thesis in real time: can growth in prediction markets, options, equities, banking, and subscriptions outrun a still-soft crypto trading backdrop, while the company absorbs elevated Trump Accounts investment and restructuring costs? A revenue/EPS beat with clear evidence that non-crypto revenue lines (especially event contracts) are scaling fast enough to offset crypto softness would likely be well received given the stock's recent de-rating. Conversely, a repeat of the Q1 pattern — a crypto-driven miss — could pressure a stock that, despite its pullback, still trades at a premium multiple pricing in continued hyper-growth.