Timing clarification: Robinhood is scheduled to report today, Wednesday, July 29, 2026, after the market closes—not tomorrow. The earnings call begins at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Robinhood enters Q2 earnings with a more diversified business than it had during prior crypto downturns. The central question is no longer simply whether cryptocurrency activity weakened—it almost certainly did—but whether prediction markets, equities, options, net interest income, and subscription products can more than compensate.
Wall Street expects approximately:
| Metric | Q2 2026 consensus | Q2 2025 | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.29B | $989M | +30% |
| Diluted EPS | $0.43 | $0.42 | +2% |
| Crypto transaction revenue | $87.6M | $160M | -45% |
| GAAP operating expenses | $777M | $550M | +41% |
The apparent disconnect—roughly 30% revenue growth but almost flat EPS—puts costs and revenue quality at the center of the report. A modest headline beat may not be enough if it comes with weaker deposits, rising credit losses, lower take rates, or little visibility into post-restructuring expenses.
Q1 provided a preview of the changing revenue mix:
For Q2, consensus calls for crypto revenue to fall again—to about $88 million, down approximately 35% sequentially as well as 45% year over year.
That decline is widely anticipated. The more consequential question is whether it is being replaced by durable revenue streams or by another highly cyclical trading category.
A high-quality quarter would show:
If prediction-market revenue exceeds crypto revenue, as some analysts expect, Q2 could mark an important symbolic transition. It would demonstrate Robinhood’s ability to identify and monetize a new retail category before competitors. It would also create a new concentration risk, particularly given the unsettled regulatory treatment of event contracts.
Prediction markets were already Robinhood’s fastest-growing transaction category in Q1, when customers traded a record 8.8 billion event contracts. Management said April was tracking near $3 billion of event-contract volume and would likely be its second-best month at that point.
The World Cup and a broader menu of contracts likely provided additional Q2 activity. The earnings release should reveal whether this translated into another major step-up in “other transaction revenue.”
Investors should focus on more than volume:
A strong prediction-market result accompanied by increased regulatory confidence would be bullish. Strong revenue without greater regulatory visibility may receive a more cautious valuation.
Management calls net deposits its “North Star” metric. That is appropriate because trading revenue can move sharply with markets, while deposits indicate whether customers are consolidating assets at Robinhood.
Q1 net deposits were $17.7 billion, equal to a 22% annualized growth rate. Management also said April deposits were approximately $5 billion despite tax-season withdrawals.
For context, Q2 2025 net deposits were $13.8 billion.
Investors should also examine:
Robinhood’s longer-term thesis depends on turning a trading account into a primary financial relationship. Q2 should provide updates across several products.
Gold subscribers reached 4.3 million in Q1, up 36% year over year, and 40% of new customers were adopting Gold. That new-customer attach rate is particularly important because Gold connects customers to cash yield, margin, credit cards, banking, and premium product features.
The market should want to see:
At the end of Q1:
A Robinhood executive said in July that the card had surpassed one million customers, suggesting the card milestone has already been reached. The remaining questions concern economics:
Credit quality deserves particular attention because the provision for credit losses was already up 50% year over year in Q1.
Robinhood entered 2026 planning substantial investment in products, international expansion, AI, acquisitions, and government-related Trump Accounts. Following Q1, the company raised its full-year outlook for adjusted operating expenses plus stock compensation to:
$2.70 billion–$2.825 billion, up $100 million from its prior range.
The increase reflected expected costs to build and support Trump Accounts. Management said roughly half of the incremental $100 million would occur in Q2, although the work is structured on a cost-plus basis and should generate slightly more revenue than expense.
Then, on June 16, Robinhood announced a reduction affecting approximately 10% of full-time employees. The company expects Q2 restructuring charges of approximately:
These charges should affect GAAP expenses but are likely to be excluded from adjusted measures.
Investors need management to explain how the workforce reduction changes the 2026 expense outlook:
Management characterized the reduction as coming from a position of strength and said June month-to-date average daily volumes were at record levels across equities, options, and prediction markets. That raises the hurdle for management to show that the action improves operating leverage without reducing product velocity.
Net interest revenue was $359 million in Q1, up 24% year over year but down from $411 million in Q4.
Several moving pieces matter:
A favorable result would include continued margin growth and stable net interest revenue without a notable increase in customer credit or liquidity risk.
In June, Robinhood issued $2.2 billion of zero-coupon convertible notes due 2029, generating approximately $2.17 billion of net proceeds.
The company used:
The capped calls substantially increase the share-price threshold at which the convert would create net dilution. Still, investors should ask why Robinhood raised so much capital despite ending Q1 with $5 billion of cash.
Possible interpretations include:
Management’s comments about intended deployment—and whether the company can keep diluted share count roughly flat—will influence the assessment.
Robinhood launched its public Chain testnet before Q1 earnings and followed with additional products in July. Because much of the latest activity occurred after quarter-end, it is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to Q2 revenue. However, management may provide early engagement statistics and a commercialization roadmap.
Investors should distinguish between:
The company was approaching one million international funded customers in Q1 and had received in-principle approval to offer brokerage services in Singapore. Other items to monitor include:
International expansion can enlarge the addressable market, but it also raises compliance spending and execution complexity.
Robinhood has said more than 90% of employees use AI tools and that engineering output has increased materially. The workforce reduction makes this more relevant: investors will want evidence that AI efficiencies are becoming visible in expenses and faster product delivery rather than remaining an anecdotal benefit.
HOOD closed at $92.78 on July 28:
The recent pullback reduces the immediate expectations embedded in the stock, but HOOD remains highly sensitive to changes in estimated growth and revenue mix. The reaction is likely to depend more on deposits, prediction-market economics, expense guidance and the forward outlook than on a small EPS beat or miss.
This would support the argument that Robinhood is becoming a diversified financial platform rather than a leveraged proxy for crypto trading.
The stock reaction could be muted or volatile depending on forward trading commentary.
Such a result would revive concerns that Robinhood’s earnings remain highly dependent on favorable retail trading cycles.
The headline numbers matter, but this report is primarily a test of revenue diversification and operating discipline.
The cleanest scorecard is:
A strong report would show that crypto is now one growth engine among several. A weak report would suggest Robinhood has replaced dependence on one volatile trading category with dependence on another, while allowing expenses to grow faster than underlying earnings.
Sources reviewed: Robinhood Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings materials and calls, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, June workforce-reduction filing, convertible-note documents, Robinhood’s earnings-date announcement, recent market news and HOOD price history.