Timing note: Robinhood is scheduled to report after the market close today, Wednesday, July 29, 2026—not tomorrow. The earnings call is expected to follow at 5:00 p.m. ET.
HOOD’s 2Q26 report is primarily a test of whether exceptional activity in equities, options, margin, and prediction markets can more than offset a weaker crypto-revenue backdrop and a step-up in investment spending.
The consensus setup appears constructive but demanding: analysts expect roughly $1.29 billion of revenue and $0.43 of EPS. That implies about 30% revenue growth year over year from 2Q25’s $989 million and a substantial sequential acceleration from 1Q26’s $1.07 billion. The debate is less about whether Robinhood is growing and more about:
The stock closed at $92.78 on July 28, down about 21% from its July 6 closing high of $117.55. That pullback may have reduced some near-term valuation pressure, but it also reflects investor concern that crypto trading has softened and that spending, dilution, and regulatory risk are rising.
| Metric | 2Q26 consensus / focus | 1Q26 actual | 2Q25 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | ~$1.29B | $1.07B | $989M |
| Diluted EPS | ~$0.43 | $0.38 | $0.42 |
| Operating expenses | ~$777M | $656M | $550M |
| Crypto transaction revenue | ~$88M | $134M | $160M |
| Net deposits | Key KPI; no consensus cited | $17.7B | $13.8B |
| Gold subscribers | Key KPI | 4.3M | 3.5M |
| Total platform assets | Key KPI | $307B | $279B |
Consensus figures reflect the latest pre-report market commentary; the other figures are company-reported.
Prediction markets have become the most important incremental revenue question for HOOD. In 1Q26, Robinhood reported a record 8.8 billion event contracts traded, and management said April prediction-market volume was on pace for roughly $3 billion, potentially its second-best month ever.
More importantly, activity appears to have remained strong into June: when announcing its June workforce reduction, Robinhood said month-to-date average daily trading volumes had reached records across equities, options, and prediction markets.
Investors should focus on more than headline contract volume:
A material upside surprise in prediction-market revenue could change the market’s view of Robinhood’s earnings mix: from a crypto- and options-sensitive brokerage to a broader active-trader platform with another high-growth transaction category.
Management’s 1Q call set up a favorable activity backdrop. April equity and options volumes were tracking toward the company’s highest month of the year and second highest month in its history. June commentary subsequently pointed to record average daily volumes across those same categories.
That should support:
The caveat is pricing. Management noted in 1Q that options and crypto take rates can decline as more active traders qualify for lower-volume pricing tiers. Thus, investors should not assume that strong notional volumes translate dollar-for-dollar into revenue upside. The key is the balance between volume growth and take-rate compression.
Consensus crypto transaction revenue of approximately $87.6 million would imply a large decline from $160 million in 2Q25 and from $134 million in 1Q26. Robinhood itself characterized April crypto activity as broadly similar to 1Q levels while emphasizing stronger equities, options, and prediction markets.
A soft crypto print is therefore well anticipated. The more important issue is whether:
A better-than-feared crypto result would help, but HOOD no longer needs crypto to carry the business the way it once did. The quarter may show whether that diversification is real.
Robinhood calls net deposits its “North Star” metric, and rightly so. In 1Q26 it produced $17.7 billion of net deposits, equivalent to a 22% annualized growth rate, after $67.8 billion over the prior 12 months. Management also disclosed approximately $5 billion of net deposits in April alone, despite tax season.
For the 2Q report, the most consequential operating outcome may be whether Robinhood can sustain deposit growth near—or above—the 20% annualized range. Strong deposits matter because they:
The quality of deposits also matters. Investors should listen for mix commentary across retirement, brokerage, Gold cash, banking, and higher-value active-trader accounts.
The longer-term bull case is increasingly based on wallet share rather than only trading volumes.
At the end of 1Q26, Robinhood had:
These products can make revenue more recurring and reduce cyclicality. The earnings report should show whether Gold subscriber growth remains robust, whether ARPU improves from the 1Q level of $157, and whether the company continues to convert brokerage users into banking and credit users.
A particularly useful data point will be Gold subscriber growth relative to funded-customer growth. Sustained attach-rate expansion would support the argument that HOOD is increasing monetization without relying entirely on trading intensity.
Expense growth is likely to be unusually important this quarter.
Robinhood’s 2026 adjusted operating expense plus SBC outlook is $2.7 billion to $2.825 billion, raised by $100 million in 1Q to fund the Trump Accounts program. Management said approximately half of that incremental investment would fall in 2Q. The company also announced a June workforce reduction affecting roughly 10% of full-time employees, with estimated 2Q charges of approximately:
Therefore, a higher GAAP expense number should not automatically be read as deteriorating discipline. Investors should distinguish among:
The best outcome would be an earnings beat accompanied by stable or improving adjusted-margin commentary, evidence that the layoff is a productivity action rather than a response to weakening demand, and no upward revision to the full-year expense guide.
In June, Robinhood closed a $2.2 billion, 0% convertible senior notes offering due 2029. It used approximately:
The notes provide strategic flexibility, but they introduce a new capital-allocation discussion. Management has framed the transaction as largely non-dilutive below much higher share-price thresholds after the capped calls and share repurchase. Still, investors should look for clarity on:
A bullish print would likely include several of the following:
Key downside risks into the print include:
HOOD enters earnings with a more diversified growth engine than in prior cycles. The company has meaningful exposure to trading activity, but it also has growing recurring and balance-sheet-linked revenue through Gold, interest income, retirement, banking, credit, and margin. The key near-term swing factor is whether prediction markets have become large enough to offset cyclical crypto weakness and sustain the company’s premium growth narrative.
My read: the operating setup appears favorable, especially for equity/options engagement and prediction markets, but expectations already assume a sharp sequential revenue step-up. A simple beat may not be sufficient. The stock likely needs evidence that net deposits remain strong, prediction-market revenue is scalable, and investment spending will preserve attractive incremental margins.