HOOD Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HOOD Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$1,330M vs. cons $1,285M MEDIUM
HOOD Report Net Deposits BEAT pred ~$19.5B vs. cons $18.7B MEDIUM
HOOD Report Adj. Operating EBITDA MISS pred ~$590M vs. cons $623M MEDIUM
HOOD Guide FY2026 Adj. OpEx + SBC (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$2.70-2.80B vs. prior $2.70-2.825B MEDIUM
HOOD Guide Q3 Volume/Deposit Tone (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED constructive but acknowledging seasonal moderation vs. cons implying flat-to-up LOW
HOOD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% MEDIUM
HOOD Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.0% (FADE) FADE — EBITDA miss drives sell-side H2 margin cuts; revenue beat acknowledged but insufficient to offset MEDIUM