Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Ticker: HOOD Earnings Date: July 29, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) Prepared: July 28, 2026

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is moderately constructive — consensus has moved up since Q1 earnings and the bar is achievable, but the single biggest swing factor is crypto revenue recovery, which consensus has already revised sharply lower and where any upside surprise could drive a meaningful beat.

Heading into Q2 2026, the setup for HOOD is more balanced than the Q1 miss would suggest. The bar on total revenue is $1.29B (consensus), up ~21% YoY, but estimates have been revised meaningfully higher since the Q1 print — a sign the Street is pricing in a strong quarter driven by record equity and options volumes (management flagged June 1 as HOOD's biggest equity trading day ever), PDT rule elimination tailwinds, and the Rothera prediction markets exchange going live. Management's tone has been notably confident at conferences, pointing to record June month-to-date trading volumes across equities, options, and prediction markets even as it announced a 10% workforce reduction "from a position of business strength." The estimate revision trajectory is constructive — revenue estimates for Q2 are up ~$84M and full-year estimates up ~$155M since the Q1 print — though the stock has already rallied ~13% from the post-earnings low, pricing in much of the good news. The key wildcard is crypto revenue: consensus has collapsed from ~$133M (post-Q1 baseline) to ~$89M for Q2, and any recovery in crypto volumes or take rate stabilization — which management signaled was occurring in April — could be the single largest source of upside surprise on the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderately high bar on revenue ($1.29B, +21% YoY) but a low bar on crypto ($89M, -44% YoY) — net deposits and Gold subscribers are the durability metrics to watch, while crypto revenue is the biggest swing factor for the beat/miss outcome.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Q2 2026 consensus as of July 28, 2026. Q1 2026 actuals reported April 28, 2026. Q2 2025 actuals reported July 2025.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Total Revenue & Net Deposits

Pattern: HOOD has beaten revenue consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with the two most recent quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) both missing — driven by crypto revenue volatility. Net deposits show a more mixed pattern, beating in 5 of 8 quarters but with large misses when macro conditions weaken. The revenue beat rate is higher when crypto volumes are elevated; the current low crypto consensus bar sets up a potential positive surprise.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year OpEx guidance by $100M at Q1 earnings (Trump Accounts investment) but has not issued formal revenue guidance; tone has been notably bullish at post-earnings conferences, citing record June trading volumes and framing the 10% workforce reduction as a strength-from-strength move.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved meaningfully higher since the Q1 print — Q2 revenue up ~$84M (+7%) and FY 2026 revenue up ~$155M (+3%) — reflecting the strong volume environment, but crypto consensus has been cut sharply, creating a low bar that could be the source of upside.

Estimates have broadly moved higher since the Q1 print, with the most notable revision being prediction markets revenue (+48% since the post-Q1 baseline), reflecting Rothera's launch and record June volumes. Crypto revenue consensus has been cut sharply (-33%), creating a low bar that could be the biggest source of upside surprise. The OpEx guidance raise ($100M for Trump Accounts) is the only formal guidance change since Q1 earnings.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus data. Post-Q1 baseline as of May 5, 2026 (5 trading days after April 28, 2026 earnings). Current consensus as of July 28, 2026.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: HOOD has significantly outperformed both the Capital Markets ETF (KCE) and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, driven by a powerful combination of multiple expansion and positive estimate revisions — the stock's +13% gain from the post-earnings low reflects the market pricing in the strong volume environment, PDT elimination, and Rothera launch, though the recent pullback from the $117 peak suggests some near-term caution ahead of the print.

HOOD vs. KCE (Capital Markets ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 28, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

HOOD opened Q2 earnings season down ~13% from the prior close (Apr 28 post-earnings: $82.07 vs. prior close ~$94), as the Q1 revenue miss and crypto weakness weighed on sentiment. The stock then staged a powerful recovery through May and June, driven by: (1) the Agentic AI product launch (May 27–28), which catalyzed a sharp two-day rally from ~$76 to ~$94; (2) the Rothera prediction markets exchange going live (June 4) and PDT rule elimination; and (3) the $2.2B convertible note offering with concurrent share repurchase (June 22–25), which pushed the stock to a peak of ~$117 on July 6. The subsequent pullback to ~$93 by July 28 reflects pre-earnings caution and some profit-taking after the 43% rally from the post-Q1 low. HOOD has returned approximately +13% since the Q1 earnings date (indexed to 100 at $82.07), versus KCE +6.8% and SPY +4.1% over the same period, demonstrating meaningful alpha generation driven by company-specific catalysts rather than sector or market tailwinds.

Sector ETF used: KCE (SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF) — appropriate for HOOD's capital markets / brokerage sub-sector.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the record June trading volumes across equities, options, and prediction markets — confirmed in the June 16 8-K — which directly de-risks the Q2 revenue print and suggests consensus may be beatable despite the elevated bar.

• June 16, 2026 — 10% Workforce Reduction (8-K): Robinhood announced a ~10% reduction in full-time employees, framed explicitly "from a position of business strength," citing "June month-to-date average daily trading volumes at record levels across equities, options, and prediction markets." Estimated charges of ~$20M cash + ~$8M SBC, to be recognized in Q2 2026. Implication: Confirms record Q2 volumes (bullish for revenue) while signaling structural cost discipline; the $28M charge will be a Q2 GAAP headwind but is excluded from adjusted EBITDA.
• June 25, 2026 — $2.2B Zero-Coupon Convertible Note Offering + Share Repurchase (8-K): Robinhood completed a $2.2B offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2029 (conversion price ~$174.42/share, 65% premium to then-price). Used ~$290M of proceeds to repurchase 2.74M shares at $105.71. Entered capped call transactions (cap price ~$237.85/share) to limit dilution. Implication: Significant capital raise with no interest cost; buyback is accretive to EPS; capped calls limit dilution up to ~$238/share. Raises balance sheet firepower for M&A or further buybacks.
• June 4, 2026 — Rothera Prediction Markets Exchange Goes Live: The Robinhood-Susquehanna JV exchange launched with World Cup and MLB contracts migrated from Kalshi. Management reported meaningful early trading volume in its first weekend. Implication: Vertical integration enables pricing innovation and margin improvement in prediction markets; institutional inbounds already received; international expansion under discussion.
• June 4, 2026 — PDT Rule Elimination Effective: SEC formally eliminated the $25K Pattern Day Trader minimum balance requirement. Robinhood immediately contacted all former customers who left due to PDT restrictions. Implication: Disproportionately positive for HOOD given smaller average account size vs. legacy brokers; management views re-acquisition of former PDT-flagged customers as a concrete near-term volume catalyst.
• June 3, 2026 — Robinhood Advisor Network Formally Launched (SYNERGY26 Conference): Launched at the Piper Sandler conference in Washington D.C.; rollout to eligible customers began the following week. Connects customers with RIAs on TradePMR via in-app video-based advisor matching. Implication: Opens wealth management cross-sell opportunity; management describes wealth management TAM as meaningfully larger than self-directed TAM.
• May 27–29, 2026 — Agentic AI Product Launches: Robinhood launched Agentic Trading (equities in beta via MCP servers) and an Agentic Credit Card for Gold Card holders. CFTC also approved the first regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures contract in the U.S. (via Kalshi) on May 29. Implication: Catalyzed a sharp two-day stock rally (~$76 to ~$94); perps represent a new revenue opportunity given HOOD's existing European experience via Bitstamp and Rothera DCM/DCO infrastructure.
• May 20, 2026 — WonderFi (Canada) Acquisition Receives CIRO Regulatory Approval: Closing expected on or about June 1, 2026. Implication: Accelerates Canadian market entry; crypto launch in Canada planned for mid-2026.
• May 8, 2026 — CTO Jeffrey Pinner Departs (8-K): Effective May 7, 2026; eligible for severance under the Change in Control and Severance Plan. Implication: Key leadership departure at a critical product velocity moment; no replacement announced in the filing; bears watching for any product execution risk.
• July 2, 2026 — Q2 2026 Earnings Date Confirmed: Robinhood confirmed earnings will be reported on July 29, 2026 via press release.
• June 26, 2026 — Dara Bazzano Appointed Principal Accounting Officer (8-K): Veteran accounting executive appointed; routine governance appointment with no material business implication.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Both IBKR and SCHW reported record or near-record Q2 2026 results with strong trading volumes, robust margin lending, and accelerating account growth — all directly read-through positive for HOOD's Q2 print, particularly for options, equities, and net interest income. The key divergence is on prediction markets, where SCHW explicitly said it has "no interest" in sports/entertainment contracts (90-95% of current volume), while IBKR launched a unified prediction markets platform focused on economic/political contracts.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 21, 2026)

Read-Through Signal: Strongly positive for HOOD across trading volumes, options, margin, and account growth.

Overall Peer Read-Through Summary: Both IBKR and SCHW reported record or near-record Q2 2026 results, with trading volumes, margin lending, and account growth all significantly above prior-year levels. This is a strong positive read-through for HOOD's Q2 print across equities, options, net interest income, and net deposits. The key HOOD-specific wildcard — crypto revenue recovery — is not directly addressed by either peer, as neither IBKR nor SCHW has meaningful crypto trading revenue comparable to HOOD's. Prediction markets commentary is mixed: SCHW's explicit rejection of sports/entertainment contracts removes a potential competitor from HOOD's Rothera market, while IBKR's launch of a financial/economic-focused prediction markets platform validates institutional demand but targets a different segment.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The most notable development is a large open-market buy by Director Meyer Malka (499,000 shares across two tranches in late May/early June, ~$38M at prevailing prices) — a rare and meaningful discretionary purchase by a board member. This is partially offset by routine 10b5-1 planned sales from the CEO, co-founder, and other executives, which are obligation-driven and carry less signal.

Analysis: The standout signal is Director Meyer Malka's two large discretionary open-market purchases totaling 499,000 shares (~$40M) in late May and early June 2026 — executed at prices of ~$76–$83/share, well below the current ~$93 level. These are not 10b5-1 plan purchases and represent a meaningful conviction buy from a board member with deep knowledge of the business. The CEO (Tenev) sold 375,000 shares on July 6 under a pre-planned 10b5-1 program, which is obligation-driven and carries low signal. Robinhood Ventures Fund I has been conducting ongoing distributions (some non-10b5-1 flagged), which represent fund-level liquidity events rather than discretionary insider selling. The net insider picture is constructive — the only meaningful discretionary transaction is a large buy.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings, insider transaction data.