Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is mixed-to-cautiously-constructive — the bar has been reset lower after Q1’s miss, but the stock has already de-rated ~13% from its post-Q1 peak, and the biggest swing factor is whether prediction markets revenue can credibly offset the structural crypto headwind.

Heading into Q2 2026 results, consensus has been revised down meaningfully since Q1 earnings — revenue estimates fell from ~$1.20B to ~$1.29B (current) after a series of downward revisions post the Q1 miss, and operating EPS consensus sits at $0.44, well below the $0.54 printed in Q2 2025. The bar is therefore more achievable than it was three months ago, and management’s April commentary was explicitly bullish: equity and options volumes were tracking as the highest month of the year, net deposits were $5B month-to-date, and the Rothera prediction markets exchange went live on June 4. However,

crypto revenue is expected to decline sharply year-over-year (consensus ~$88M vs. $160M in Q2 2025), and the company will absorb ~$28M in restructuring charges from the June 16 workforce reduction. The stock has pulled back ~20% from its July peak of ~$116 to ~$93 as of July 28, suggesting the market has partially priced in execution risk, but the multiple remains elevated relative to traditional brokers. The

wildcard is prediction markets revenue: Bernstein and Piper Sandler analysts flagged in late July that prediction markets revenue could surpass crypto revenue as early as Q2, and Robinhood’s Rothera chain logged 105 million transactions in its first weeks — if event contracts revenue surprises to the upside, it could be the catalyst that re-rates the stock despite the crypto drag.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a manageable bar on revenue ($1.29B, +30% YoY) and EBITDA ($623M), but

net deposits ($18.7B consensus) and Gold subscribers (4.59M) are the real quality tests — both are metrics management has consistently guided above, and a miss on either would signal platform momentum is slowing.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 28, 2026); Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Top 2 KPIs (Last 8 Quarters)

KPI 1: Total Revenue

KPI 2: Net Deposits ($B)

Pattern: Revenue has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses concentrated in the most recent two prints (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) — both driven by crypto revenue shortfalls vs. elevated expectations. Net deposits are more volatile vs. consensus, reflecting the difficulty in modeling quarter-to-quarter flows, but the 20%+ annualized growth rate target has been consistently met or exceeded on a trailing basis.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: The only formal guidance update since Q1 earnings was the

~$100M OpEx raise for Trump Accounts (to $2.70–$2.825B for FY2026 adj. OpEx + SBC); management tone on volumes and deposits has been consistently bullish through the Bernstein conference (May 27), and the June 16 workforce reduction — framed as a performance culture move, not a demand signal — adds a modest cost tailwind.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been revised

downward since Q1 earnings across all key metrics — Q2 revenue consensus fell from $1.20B (as of May 5) to $1.29B (current, reflecting post-Q1 re-rating), while FY2026 revenue moved from $4.95B to $5.11B. The gap between current consensus and the 20%+ net deposit growth target suggests the street is modeling conservatively on deposits, which could be a source of upside.

Note: Estimates have moved upward since the May 5 post-Q1 baseline across revenue, EPS, and EBITDA, reflecting the strong volume data points disclosed at the Bernstein conference and the June 1 record equity trading day. The upward revision trend is a constructive setup, though the magnitude of the move (7–10% on most metrics) means the bar has risen from its post-Q1 trough.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; Q1 2026 Earnings Release; Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27, 2026).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: HOOD surged ~+43% from the Q1 earnings close ($82) to its July 6 peak (~$118), dramatically outperforming XLF (+8%) and SPY (+6%) over the same period, driven by

sentiment re-rating on prediction markets momentum, PDT rule elimination, and the Rothera launch — but the stock has since given back ~21% from peak to ~$93 as of July 28, suggesting the market is now waiting for the print to validate the narrative.

Chart: HOOD vs. XLF vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026)

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:

• May 27–29: Agentic Trading/Commerce launch + CFTC approves Bitcoin perpetual futures → HOOD surged from ~$76 to ~$94 (+24% in 2 days)
• Jun 1: Biggest equity trading day ever in Robinhood history (surpassing GameStop-era volumes)
• Jun 4: Rothera prediction markets exchange goes live; PDT rule formally eliminated → stock initially dipped then recovered
• Jun 16: 10% workforce reduction announced (8-K); stock rose on the news, framed as efficiency move from “position of business strength”
• Jun 22–25: $2.2B zero-coupon convertible note offering completed; $290M in shares repurchased at $105.71 → stock peaked near $108
• Jul 6: HOOD hit ~$118 (all-time high territory); CEO Tenev sold 375,000 shares via 10b5-1 plan
• Jul 15–28: Stock pulled back ~21% from peak to ~$93 ahead of earnings; Tenev Trust filed Form 144 for $37M in intended sales

Sector ETF used: XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) — appropriate for Robinhood’s classification as a diversified financial services company.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the

Rothera prediction markets exchange going live on June 4 — vertical integration that gives Robinhood pricing control and institutional reach in its fastest-growing revenue line, directly relevant to Q2 results. The $2.2B convertible note offering and 10% workforce reduction are secondary but meaningful for the cost and capital structure narrative.

• May 27, 2026 — Agentic Trading & Commerce Launch: Robinhood launched Agentic Trading (equities via MCP servers, beta) and Agentic Commerce (virtual Gold Card for AI agents). First live agentic product releases; positions HOOD as AI-native broker.
• Implication: Differentiator for developer/institutional customer acquisition; not yet a material revenue driver in Q2 but a key narrative catalyst.
• May 29, 2026 — CFTC Approves First Regulated Bitcoin Perpetual Futures (via Kalshi): Robinhood already offers perps in Europe via Bitstamp; Rothera DCM/DCO infrastructure positions it to launch U.S. perps independently.
• Implication: Significant medium-term revenue opportunity; management views as additive to 0DTE options, not cannibalistic.
• Jun 1, 2026 — Record Equity Trading Day: Robinhood’s biggest day ever in equity trading (surpassing GameStop-era volumes) and biggest overnight session ever.
• Implication: Directly positive for Q2 equities and options transaction revenue; confirms PDT elimination and active trader platform momentum.
• Jun 4, 2026 — Rothera Exchange Live + PDT Rule Eliminated: Rothera (JV with Susquehanna) launched with World Cup and MLB contracts migrated from Kalshi; generated meaningful early trading volume in first weekend. PDT rule formally eliminated effective same day.
• Implication: Vertical integration enables pricing innovation in prediction markets; PDT elimination disproportionately benefits HOOD given smaller average account size vs. legacy brokers.
• Jun 16, 2026 — 10% Workforce Reduction (8-K): ~290 employees affected; ~$28M in Q2 restructuring charges ($20M cash + $8M SBC). Framed as performance culture move, not demand-driven. June MTD volumes at record levels across equities, options, and prediction markets cited in the filing.
• Implication: Modest cost tailwind for H2 2026; $28M charge will weigh on Q2 GAAP results but excluded from adjusted metrics.
• Jun 22–25, 2026 — $2.2B Zero-Coupon Convertible Note Offering: 0% coupon, due 2029; conversion price ~$174.42 (65% premium to Jun 22 close). $290M used to repurchase 2.74M shares at $105.71. Capped calls entered at $237.85 cap price.
• Implication: Significantly enhances financial flexibility with no interest expense; EPS-accretive buyback; potential dilution capped at $237.85. Raises question of deployment strategy (M&A, international expansion, buybacks).
• Jun 26, 2026 — Dara Bazzano Appointed Principal Accounting Officer (8-K): Routine appointment following CFO transition.
• Implication: No material earnings impact; governance continuity.
• Jul 1, 2026 — Robinhood Chain Launched: 105 million transactions logged in first weeks; Robinhood Earn offering ~7% yield on dollars lent to the protocol.
• Implication: Tokenization narrative accelerating; not yet a material Q2 revenue contributor but a key long-term platform differentiator.
• Jul 23–27, 2026 — Robinhood in Talks with Crypto.com for Prediction Markets: WSJ reported Robinhood is in discussions to integrate Crypto.com’s prediction market contracts onto its platform, expanding beyond Kalshi and Rothera.
• Implication: Signals prediction markets becoming a multi-provider marketplace; positive for contract diversity and volume but raises competitive dynamics with Kalshi.
• Jul 23, 2026 — Bernstein & Piper Sandler Analyst Commentary: Both firms flagged prediction markets revenue could surpass crypto revenue as early as Q2 2026.
• Implication: If confirmed in the print, this would be a significant narrative inflection point for the stock.

7. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from SCHW and IBKR (both reporting Q2 2026 results on July 21) provides

strong read-through for HOOD’s Q2 trading volumes, margin book, and net new asset trends — the industry backdrop is the best in years, with record DARTs, surging margin balances, and broad-based retail engagement. The key HOOD-specific question is whether its prediction markets and crypto mix can translate this volume tailwind into revenue that beats the lowered bar.

Note on Scope: Only commentary from the last 60 days (since May 28, 2026) that explicitly describes Q2 2026 (April–June) conditions is included below. Q1 2026 earnings commentary from peers (which described Q1 conditions) is excluded. IBKR and SCHW both reported Q2 2026 results on July 21, 2026, making their transcripts the most directly relevant read-through for HOOD’s Q2 print.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 21, 2026)

Relevance: IBKR is the closest structural peer to HOOD on active trading, margin lending, and international expansion. Its Q2 2026 results describe the same April–June environment HOOD will report on.

Source: IBKR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 21, 2026).

Charles Schwab (SCHW) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 21, 2026)

Relevance: SCHW is the dominant retail brokerage and the most direct read-through for retail trading activity, net new assets, and margin lending trends in Q2 2026.

Source: SCHW Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 21, 2026).

Bernstein & Piper Sandler Analyst Commentary (July 23, 2026)

Relevance: Sell-side commentary published within the last week directly addressing Q2 2026 expectations for HOOD.

• Prediction Markets to Surpass Crypto Revenue in Q2: Both Bernstein and Piper Sandler analysts argued that HOOD’s prediction markets revenue is set to overshadow crypto trading revenue starting as early as Q2 2026.
• Read-Through: If confirmed, this would represent a significant narrative inflection — prediction markets becoming the #2 transaction revenue line behind options, displacing crypto. The Rothera launch (June 4) and 105M chain transactions in the first weeks of July support this thesis.
• Robinhood Chain Growth: Analysts highlighted Robinhood’s blockchain launch on July 1 with 105 million transactions and the Robinhood Earn product offering ~7% yield.
• Read-Through: Tokenization and on-chain activity are not yet material Q2 revenue contributors but are being flagged as the next major growth vector; management likely to provide an update on the July 29 call.

Source: Bloomberg Businessweek / YouTube (July 23, 2026).

Coinbase (COIN) — Industry Context (May 2026)

Relevance: COIN has not yet reported Q2 2026 results (current period is Q2 2026 per the fiscal calendar), so no Q2 earnings read-through is available. However, industry commentary from May 2026 is relevant context.

• Crypto Firms Pivoting to Tokenization (May 22, 2026): Industry commentary noted crypto firms are embracing traditional assets and tokenization to build resilient “everything exchanges” and financial infrastructure, moving beyond volatile trading revenue.
• Read-Through: Validates HOOD’s tokenization strategy and Robinhood Chain launch; the industry is moving in the direction HOOD has been telegraphing. However, this is a medium-term narrative, not a Q2 revenue driver.

Source: Public news (May 22, 2026).

Summary Read-Through Assessment

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The insider picture is dominated by

systematic 10b5-1 plan sales across the executive team and co-founders — all pre-planned and not discretionary. The one notable exception is Director Meyer Malka’s

open-market purchase of ~499,000 shares (~$38M) in late May/early June at prices around $75–$83, which is a meaningful discretionary buy signal at a time when the stock was near its post-Q1 lows. CEO Tenev’s 375,000-share 10b5-1 sale on July 6 (at the stock’s peak) is notable in size but pre-planned.

Overall Assessment: The insider picture is net neutral-to-slightly-positive. All executive sales are pre-planned 10b5-1 transactions and carry no discretionary signal. The standout is Director Meyer Malka’s ~$38–40M in discretionary open-market purchases in late May/early June at prices well below current levels — a meaningful vote of confidence from a board member at a time when the stock was under pressure post-Q1 miss. The Robinhood Ventures Fund I daily sales are systematic fund monetization and should be disregarded as a signal.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database; Form 144 Filings.