HSY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HSY Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.46 MEDIUM
HSY Report Net sales (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$2.62B vs. cons $2.63B MEDIUM
HSY Report Adjusted gross margin (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~41.5% vs. cons ~41.0% (+~300bps y/y off 38.1%) MEDIUM
HSY Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide raised to ~$8.55 midpoint vs. cons $8.43 (FY2026) MEDIUM
HSY Guide FY26 Organic net sales growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~2.5%-3.5% (mid ~3.0%) vs. cons ~3.2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
HSY Guide H2 gross-margin expansion commentary BETTER guide >500bps H2 vs. cons ~+450bps (H2 FY2026) LOW
HSY Guide North America Confectionery market share (CMG) UNKNOWN pred share ~flat/-0.5pt vs. cons stabilization expectation ~flat (Q2'26) LOW
HSY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
HSY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) EPS beat plus a modest mid-year guide raise on cocoa deflation drives a day-1 pop, but the stock already rallied ~6% into the print (buy-the-rumor), the reported organic top line is optically soft on Q1 pull-forward, and CMG share softness plus 'reaffirm-heavy' framing limit out-period upside. Beat is largely priced, so much of the initial move gives back and residual stabilizes only modestly above pre-print. LOW