{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.46",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.62B vs. cons $2.63B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted gross margin (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~41.5% vs. cons ~41.0% (+~300bps y/y off 38.1%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide raised to ~$8.55 midpoint vs. cons $8.43 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Organic net sales growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~2.5%-3.5% (mid ~3.0%) vs. cons ~3.2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 gross-margin expansion commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide >500bps H2 vs. cons ~+450bps (H2 FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "North America Confectionery market share (CMG)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred share ~flat/-0.5pt vs. cons stabilization expectation ~flat (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "EPS beat plus a modest mid-year guide raise on cocoa deflation drives a day-1 pop, but the stock already rallied ~6% into the print (buy-the-rumor), the reported organic top line is optically soft on Q1 pull-forward, and CMG share softness plus 'reaffirm-heavy' framing limit out-period upside. Beat is largely priced, so much of the initial move gives back and residual stabilizes only modestly above pre-print.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}