| HUM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.60 vs. cons $6.22 |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Report |
Insurance segment benefit ratio / MLR (Q2'26, lower=beat) |
BEAT |
pred ~90.9% vs. cons/guide ~91.2% |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Report |
Total revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$40.9B vs. cons $40.65B |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EPS guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$9.00+ (reaffirmed) vs. cons $9.25 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Guide |
FY26 Insurance benefit ratio guide |
BETTER |
guide ~92.5% (low end of 92.75%±25bps) vs. cons 92.75% (FY26) |
LOW |
| HUM |
Guide |
BY2028 Stars / MA margin path commentary |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~3%+ MA margin, top-quartile Stars by 2028 vs. cons ~2.5% implied (FY28) |
LOW |
| HUM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
LOW |
| HUM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Likely an EPS/MLR beat validating moderating cost trend, but the stock has doubled off the March low and UNH's blowout already priced the good read-through (HUM fell the day UNH beat, and has drifted from ~$409 to ~$388 into the print). Bar is very high; management's conservative 'at least $9.00' reaffirm (vs cons already $9.25) and can't-confirm-until-October Stars hedging fall short of the raise bulls want. Out-period math is the key drag: 2027 bids require deeper benefit cuts and flat-to-down membership to hit the 2028 margin target, so analysts won't extrapolate the H1 beat — implicit 2027/2028 caps pull estimates down. Day-1 fade should follow through lower over the week as the sell-the-news de-rating from elevated levels persists. |
LOW |