| HUM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.38 vs. cons $6.19 |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$41.0B vs. cons $40.6B |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Insurance Segment Benefit Ratio (MLR) |
BEAT |
pred ~90.9% vs. cons/guided ~91.2% |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$9.35-9.50 (raised from 'at least $9.00') vs. cons $9.26 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Guide |
FY2026 Total Revenue guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$161-162B (reaffirmed 'at least $160B') vs. cons $162.6B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Guide |
FY2026 Insurance segment benefit ratio guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~92.5% (tightened from 92.75%±25bps) vs. cons 92.75% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| HUM |
Guide |
Bonus Year 2028 Star Ratings recovery commentary (qualitative, hybrid/secret-shopper results) |
BETTER |
guide ~directionally encouraging update implying ~70-80% of MA members trending toward 4-star+ by BY2028 vs. cons/prior uncertainty (~50% probability of full recovery priced by market) (BY2028) |
LOW |
| HUM |
Guide |
Individual MA membership growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~25% vs. cons ~25% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| HUM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.7% (FADE) |
Q2 beat and a modestly better-than-guided benefit ratio plus an encouraging (if not conclusive) BY2028 Star Ratings update likely drive an initial pop, but with the stock already up >120% from its Feb low and near all-time highs, most of the good news (favorable CMS 2027 rate notice, easing sector cost trends, UNH's clean beat-and-raise) is already priced in. As sell-side digests the print over the following days, focus shifts to the out-period math: 2027 still requires further benefit cuts per management's own commentary on a wider funding-vs.-trend gap, FY2027 consensus EPS still implies a ~46% y/y decline off this year's elevated base, and full BY2028 Star clarity remains pending the Fifth Circuit ruling and CMS's final Star Ratings release in October. That combination of near-term beat but unresolved multi-year Stars/bid uncertainty typically produces partial fade/give-back of the day-1 pop as analysts raise FY26 numbers only modestly while keeping FY27 estimates more cautious. |
LOW |