| ICE |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.30 vs. cons ~$2.15 (+7%) |
HIGH |
| ICE |
Report |
Net revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.96B vs. cons ~$2.87B (+3%) |
HIGH |
| ICE |
Report |
Energy (exchanges) transaction revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$770M vs. cons ~$695M (+11%) |
MEDIUM |
| ICE |
Guide |
Adjusted operating expense (Q3'26) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.045B vs. cons ~$1.040B (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ICE |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted opex guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.18B vs. cons ~$4.17B (FY2026); modest revenue-driven raise possible |
MEDIUM |
| ICE |
Guide |
Energy open interest / forward volume commentary |
BETTER |
OI pred ~+18% y/y held post-March vs. cons/feared roll-over ~flat (fwd/Q3) |
MEDIUM |
| ICE |
Guide |
Mortgage recurring revenue outlook |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~flat vs. cons ~$540M (Q3 2026); refi tailwind at risk if Fed hikes |
LOW |
| ICE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ICE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
Expect a genuine record quarter and a clean beat on energy/rates, but the stock ran ~+25% off its late-June low and ~+8% in the two sessions into the print, pricing in a beat-and-sustain. Energy transaction revenue is a war/volatility windfall the market treats as peak-cyclical, so even after the beat sell-side out-quarter (Q3/Q4) models get trimmed on mean-reversion of energy ADV/OI and refi-driven mortgage upside that reverses if the Fed hikes. That implicit-cut, out-period math pulls estimates and the multiple down after an initial pop, driving a fade rather than follow-through. |
LOW |